Brewers vs. Cubs prediction and odds for Sunday, April 2 (Trust Chicago at home)
By Reed Wallach
The Cubs and Brewers have an opening series rubber match on Sunday afternoon at Wrigley Field.
Chicago will hand the ball to offseason acquisition Jameson Taillon, who will look to get put together a strong first outing with his new team against a Brewers offense that is going to lean on the back of its rotation on Sunday with lefty Eric Lauer.
How should we bet this series finale? First, let's check out the odds:
Brewers vs. Cubs odds, run line and total
Brewers vs. Cubs prediction and pick
While the wind may not have a massive betting impact on the entirety of the game -- there are 13 miles per hour winds blowing from left to right -- Wrigley Field always has volatile outcomes with the wind blowing. So, it's key for pitchers to keep the ball on the ground and avoid being put into precarious situations.
Enter: Eric Lauer. The Brewers left hander has struggled at Wrigley, posting a 5.56 ERA in three appearances that includes seven earned runs in 11 1/3 innings. Lauer allows a ton of fly ball contact, he has never allowed less than 60% of contact to be fly balls. With the wind swirling in the outfield that can lead to more balls carrying out of the park.
On the other side, Taillon is not generating as much groundball contact as he did with the Pittsburgh Pirates several years ago, but after allowing an incredibly low 33% groundball rate, that number jumped back over 40% last season while he posted a career low walk rate for a full season.
I believe Taillon is suited for the wind at the Cubbies home stadium and can limit any damage from a Brewers team that got blanked on Opening Day and scored only three runs in a win on Saturday. Further, Lauer can be in danger of allowing damaging big plays with his inability to keep the ball out of the air.
I see an edge in taking the home team to win the final game of the series.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.