Analytics prove what fans already knew: the Chicago Cubs are fun to watch

The Chicago Cubs opened the season with two losses but since then have ripped off three wins in a row, and as everyone that’s watched them can see: they’re going to be very fun team this season. That thought is not unique to those in the North Side of Chicago though as a recent ESPN article ranked all 30 MLB teams based on their watchability and the Cubs finished sixth in those rankings. 

The list awarded points to teams based on six categories as well as the opportunity to earn bonus points for various things, ranging from 1-10, with 1 being the lowest and 10 the highest.

The Top Five

1. The Los Angeles Dodgers, who just spent over a billion dollars in guaranteed money on free agents this offseason.
2. The Baltimore Orioles, who have the top farm system in baseball and are coming off an AL East crown last season.
3. The Atlanta Braves, who had one of the most dominant offenses (and the most dominant offensive player) in recent memory and look even stronger heading into 2024.
4. The Arizona Diamondbacks, the team that edged the Cubs out last September for the final Wild Card spot and wound up winning the National League pennant.
5. The Texas Rangers, the Diamondbacks' opponent in the Fall Classic, who brought home the first championship in franchise history.
   

Of the Cubs’ National League Central rivals, only the Pittsburgh Pirates cracked the top 10 coming in at tenth place on the list. The St. Louis Cardinals couldn’t make the top 20 as they came in 21st and the cross-own rival White Sox nearly came in dead last at 29th.

Here are the factors that determined just how 'fun' the Cubs are

Star Power - 4.5

The first category was 'star power,' which was based on how many players the team had in the top 100 players of ESPN's Top 100 list. This category saw the Cubs as a little below average at 4.5, but this team’s lack of star power is something that we were already well aware of.

Youth - 6

The next category was youth which, was based on the Fangraphs WAR from players on the current roster in their first or second season in the majors. 

Based on that definition a six makes sense for the Cubs because Christopher Morel is technically too old to be exciting within those constraints and the Cubs’ second-best farm system in MLB can’t be taken into too much account because the projections never give too much love to players who aren't on the Opening Day roster.

This is the area the team can grow the most in terms of watchability for this season, as players like Owen Caissie, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Matt Shaw and Cade Horton force their way to Wrigley.

Baserunning - 10

Baserunning was the third category which was based on Fangraphs team baserunning metric from 2023 with minor changes thanks to roster changes. 

The Cubs were more active on the basepaths last season than every team except for the Tampa Bay Rays. It will be interesting to see if that trend continues under new manager Craig Counsell or if that was something that will go away now that David Ross is no longer in the organization, but the Cubs certainly still seem to have the speed to be a problem for other teams. 

Cubs fall short in surprising areas based on what I recall from last season

Catches - 3

4-and-5-star catches were based on Baseball Savant data that looks at how many catches were made in 2023 that a player had a 0-50% likelihood of catching.

This number struck me as shockingly low, but perhaps that’s based on the Mike Tauchman catch against the St. Louis Cardinals in the bottom of the ninth at Busch Stadium last season that’s still burned into my memory. 

Big Homers - 1

These are 425-plus foot home runs and it shouldn’t come as a shock to see that the Cubs don’t rank highly here. Cody Bellinger has had well-documented problems with exit velocity due to a change in approach at the plate, Christopher Morel has had well-documented problems making consistent contact, and Seiya Suzuki didn’t hit his stride until the end of last season.

I expect this to be an area the Cubs improve upon greatly this season. Suzuki appears more comfortable at the plate, Morel is clobbering baseballs and Alexander Canario and Owen Caissie are just a phone call away in Iowa to add some thump to this lineup if need be.