A surprising name can be 'penciled in' to next year's Cubs starting rotation

The curtain is falling on the 2024 Chicago Cubs. A season that began with lofty expectations and high hopes will end in disappointment as the adage we thought had been put to bed, "wait till next year," becomes increasingly relevant in this post-2016 era.

With that realization, our attention is shifting to the upcoming offseason - one that has major implications for fans, the organization - and president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer, who is heading into the final year of his contract without the results that matter (wins) under his belt.

In his latest piece over at The Athletic (subscription required), Patrick Mooney looked at the team's rotation heading into 2025 and noted that while the Cubs are expected to add another proven starter to the mix, right-hander Javier Assad is expected to be part of the team's starting mix again next year.

Some, myself included, believed that Assad might slide back into a swingman role if the team added a proven commodity to slot in alongside Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga and Jameson Taillon. Instead of betting on Jordan Wicks or Ben Brown, it appears Assad has the inside track on the fifth and final spot in the rotation as the 2024 campaign wings down.

Assad continues to outperform the metrics, accumulating 2.4 bWAR in each of the last two seasons. He's already set a career-high in innings in 2024 (137.2) but continues to be a reliable presence at the back of the rotation, working to a 3.27 ERA. A 4.49 FIP suggests a bit of luck, but it's been an uncanny ability to wiggle out of spots with men on base that's been the secret to his success for two years now.

His Baseball Savant page is icy cold, blanketed with blue - which makes his end-result numbers even more surprising. He gets a ton of value out of his sinker and, after seeing him maintain it for nearly 300 innings, we can't just chalk it up to good luck anymore. Assad has proven he's capable of holding down a spot in the back of a big-league rotation and all signs point to him getting the chance to do it again with the Cubs in 2025.