A Player from Each NL Central Team That Will Give the Cubs a Problem

The projected standings have been released and each projection has the Chicago Cubs finishing in third behind the Milwaukee Brewers and the St. Louis Cardinals. These projections should be no surprise, though. With the additions of Jameson Taillon, Cody Bellinger, Trey Mancini, and Michael Fulmer among others, the Cubs have improved their roster quite a bit. These signings should keep them ahead of the Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates, but they will need to really outperform projections in order to overtake the Brewers or Cardinals. Colleague Ryan O'Rourke dives into the latest PECOTA standings projections here.

The Cubs finished last season in third place in the NL Central division, but they were 37-39 on the year against those teams. However, the Cubs had a winning record against every team in their division except for the Cardinals (6-13 vs the Cardinals in 2022). 2022 marked the last year of divisional rivals playing each other 19 times. The new Major League Baseball schedule has changed this to only 13 games against division opponents.

Even though there will not be as many games played against NL Central teams this season, the Cubs will still play their divisional rivals more than any other team. This means there are going to be players they see more than any other player in the league and some of these players are going to dominate against the Cubs. For example, the reigning NL MVP, Paul Goldschmidt, is a notable Cub killer. He hit .300 with 7 home runs and 16 RBI in 2022 when he went up against the Cubs. Each team has one of these players, so here is a player from each NL Central team the Cubs will have the most difficulty facing in 2023.

Alexis Díaz - RHP - Cincinatti Reds

Starting from the projected bottom of the division, the Cincinnati Reds have a very promising young reliever lurking in their bullpen. Alexis Díaz is the younger brother of New York Mets closer Edwin Díaz, but he made a massive splash in his rookie season. Díaz finished his rookie year with a 1.84 ERA, 10 saves, and 83 strikeouts in just 63 2/3 innings of work. Although he did not start the season as the closer, that is where he finished it. The 26-year-old will most likely begin the 2023 season in the closer role.

Díaz pitched in just six games against the Cubs in 2022, but he enjoyed success when his name was called upon. Against the Cubs, in 2022 he made 6 appearances and pitched 7 2/3 innings while striking out 13 and giving up just 3 hits. With an ERA of 2.45, a 2-0 record, and 2 saves, it is safe to say Díaz loved when Cub hitters stepped in the box to face him.

2023 will see Díaz be the full-time closer for the Reds, and this is not good news for the Cubs. Out of their 19 games last season, 9 were decided by 3 runs or less. Now, the Cubs did win a few of those games, but they do play a lot of close games versus the Reds. In the last two seasons, the Cubs have a record of 19-19 when facing the Reds. A good closer can really sway the outcome of some of those games and that is exactly what Alexis Díaz brings to the table. The Cubs will not fare well against the Reds if they have to see Díaz eight or nine times.

Ke'Bryan Hayes - 3B - Pittsburgh Pirates

The easy answer here would be Bryan Reynolds, and you can definitely make an argument to put him here instead of Ke'Bryan Hayes. However, with the trade request from Reynolds and the uncertainty of his future in Pittsburgh, Hayes will be the man to look out for in 2023 when the Cubs play the Pirates.

Hayes played fairly well against the Cubs in 2022. On the season, though, the former first-round draft pick was just average. Through 136 games, he hit .244 while only hitting 7 home runs and driving in 41. However, in 14 games against the Cubs, Hayes hit .320 and scored 8 runs. Even though he only hit 1 homerun in those 14 games, 7 of his 16 hits were for extra bases and he was an on-base machine (.393 OBP). For some people, power is not everything and Hayes found other ways to dismantle Cubs' pitchers.

The Cubs finished the 2022 season with a 10-9 record against the Pirates. Ke'Bryan Hayes only played in 14 of those 19 games. In the five games that Hayes was absent, the Pirates were just 1-4. The Pirates were not very good last year, but they were much worse without Ke'Bryan Hayes. In 26 games without him, the Pirates were an abysmal 5-21. If Hayes can stay healthy, the Cubs are going to need to find a way to contain him if they want to have another winning season versus the Pirates.

Christian Yelich - OF - Milwaukee Brewers

After being traded to the Brewers, Christian Yelich had a lot of success. In his first season with the Brewers, Yelich won an MVP, but then COVID hit and he had an awful 2020 season. If you ask any Brewers fan, his 2021 and 2022 seasons were very disappointing as well. His numbers have been trending upward, though. Last season he had 575 at-bats and hit .252 with 14 home runs and 57 RBI. These numbers are nothing special, but if you look at his 2020 and 2021 seasons, he is making positive strides.

Yelich may have had average numbers on the season in 2022, but he was very good when playing against the Cubs. In 18 games, Yelich had 21 hits to give him a batting average of .328. The former first-round pick added 4 home runs, 13 RBIs and 15 runs scored to his 2022 stat line versus the Cubs as well. 28% of his home runs and 22% of his RBIs came against the Cubs. When facing Yelich last year, Cubs' pitching just could not figure it out.

To the surprise of many, the Cubs were able to pull off a winning record vs the Brewers in 2022. Even with Yelich producing those numbers, and the pitching staff in Milwaukee, the Cubs were able to pull out 10 wins. However, 8 of those 10 games were decided by 2 runs or less. The Brewers made a few additions and kept the same pitching staff, so they seem to look pretty strong heading into the 2023 season. The Cubs are going to be in some serious danger if they fail to suppress Yelich this upcoming season.