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7 Cubs prospects who are expendable, 2 they should keep for 2025
Chicago must capitalize on its heap of talent at Triple-A and turn those prospects into big-league assets if they want to turn the corner in 2025.
Since late 2020, Jed Hoyer has had one mission: revamp a farm system that lay in ruins after the Chicago Cubs repeatedly pushed their chips in following the team's 2016 World Series championship. With seven of MLB Pipeline's top 100 prospects - including six at Triple-A - the system is, no doubt, in better shape than three years ago.
Now comes the question of what to do with this crop of young talent. With a big-league roster that's largely locked in, there won't be a path to regular playing time for all these guys. Staring down a critical offseason, Hoyer may very well wind up moving some of these prospects for established players to plug into holes at the MLB level.
That doesn't mean everyone is available. Here are seven Cubs prospects who are expendable and two the team needs to hold onto this winter.
A trio of top Cubs outfield prospects could be on the trade block
It seems highly unlikely the Chicago Cubs trade Kevin Alcantara, Alexander Canario and Owen Caissie in one offseason, but with Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki under team control through 2026 and Pete Crow-Armstrong under lock and key through the end of the decade, this is a clear area of depth Hoyer could - and should - tap into this winter.
Canario came over in the Kris Bryant trade along with Caleb Kilian and, despite decent numbers in a small MLB sample size and quality production at Triple-A, Chicago seems to have very little interest in giving Canario some runway at the big-league level. He makes for an obvious trade chip at this point and an .866 OPS at Iowa in his minor-league career will surely draw interest.
Kevin Alcantara came over from the Yankees in the Anthony Rizzo deal three years ago and is now knocking on the door. With an OBP pushing .400 at Iowa this summer across 35 games, you could afford to let him get some more seasoning before making a decision, but as a top 100 guy, he could be a valuable asset to help the Cubs shore up the bullpen or swing a deal for a power bat.
A lot of folks thought we might see Owen Caissie as a September call-up, but alas. He finished out the year at Triple-A Iowa and, like Alcantara and Canario, hung an OPS around that .850 mark with the I-Cubs. If he's still in the organization next year and Cody Bellinger is a thing of the past, maybe he gets a chance to compete for a starting gig, with Suzuki sliding into the DH role permanently.
The shine has worn off for this former second-round pick, top prospect
This isn't the first time I've opined Brennen Davis' time with the Chicago Cubs organization may be coming to an end. After suffering another freak injury, this time a season-ending ankle fracture, the outfielder may be a victim of a 40-man roster crunch this winter as Hoyer looks to shake up his team.
In 181 plate appearances at Iowa this year, Davis barely kept his head above the Mendoza Line, but a strong OBP and slugging percentage helped him deliver an OPS north of .800. Across parts of four seasons and 680 plate appearances at Iowa, though, he's got a sub-.700 OPS and a .203 average. That's not going to cut it, especially when you look at the numerous other outfield options on the rise in the organization.
The problem with moving off Davis now is the Cubs would be selling low on him. Maybe he's tacked onto a deal to get it across the finish line, but no one expects him to be a franchise-altering presence at this point. He just hasn't shown an ability to stay healthy enough to be that guy.
If you want to acquire impact talent, you have to trade impact prospects
The Cubs' first-round pick this year, Cam Smith out of Florida State, checked every box imaginable in his first taste of pro ball. In 32 games across A, High-A and Double-A ball, he posted a 1.004 OPS and could make the jump to Triple-A next summer.
Trading him, especially when third base still feels somewhat uncertain after Isaac Paredes' erratic performance since coming over at the trade deadline, would be risky. But with other internal options waiting in the wings, namely Matt Shaw, it's a risk that Hoyer could decide is worth taking.
Smith snuck into the top 100 rankings in MLB Pipeline's latest update, checking in at #100, only furthering the allure surrounding him. The Cubs need a front-of-the-rotation starting pitcher, proven arms in the bullpen, a legitimate long-term solution at catcher and a big impact bat. Smith could help them fill some of these needs, but it could be a painful look back in just a few years' time.
A pair of top 50 talents the Cubs should be willing to listen on in talks
Moises Ballesteros has been talked about more this summer than ever before given the ongoing struggles of Miguel Amaya. The Cubs entered the year ready to pass the torch to Amaya, but his early-season woes at the plate derailed those plans. It seemed he'd figured something out at the plate, with an OPS in the .900 neighborhood in July and August, but he's fallen flat in September, batting just .192.
No one is questioning Ballesteros' bat. That's all he's done this year, slashing .289/.354/.471 between Double and Triple-A. The questions arise when it comes to his physical makeup and ability to stick behind the plate. Consistently graded out as a below-average glove, it would be tough to expect him to handle an MLB pitching staff from day one next season.
I'm not saying the Cubs need to move off Ballesteros. I'd like to see him get a full season at Iowa and, hopefully, continue to improve defensively. What they can't do is head into 2025 expecting Amaya and Ballesteros to shore up a position that cratered for the team this season. That's just not a serious solution to the problem.
James Triantos might be a perfect replacement for Miles Mastrobuoni on the Cubs bench. Capable of playing multiple infield positions and the outfield, his hit tool is the most valuable thing he brings to the table, something we certainly cannot say when it comes to Mastrobuoni and his 34 OPS+ this year.
The proud owner of a .300 average between Double and Triple-A this year, Triantos deserves a look in camp next spring. Trading him would hurt given his defensive versatility and bat-to-ball skills, but given the situation facing the Cubs, they have to be willing to listen on just about anybody.
There are only two true untouchables in this Chicago Cubs system
If I'm being honest, Cade Horton barely made this list. I would be open to listening on him. But I think the Cubs have him firmly in the 'untouchable' bucket and they'll hope he factors into the Cubs pitching staff at some point next season.
After carving up hitters in the lower levels of the minors in 2023, Horton ran off four dominant starts at Double-A Tennessee to open the 2024 campaign before earning a promotion to Iowa. There, he was less effective, with a 7.50 ERA in five starts before hitting the shelf with a should issue. His velocity was down prior to the injury, so it'll be all eyes on the right-hander next spring to see if he can recapture his form from 2023.
The one true untouchable here is Matt Shaw, who was just named the Chicago Cubs prospect of the year by Baseball America. The infielder put up eye-popping numbers in 2023 and followed it up this year with an .867 OPS between Tennessee and Iowa, including a .929 clip at Triple-A. He runs well, can play second, short or third and will be on the big-league club before the 2025 season wraps up.
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