5 underrated prospects in the Chicago Cubs farm system
With it so easy for prospects to not get the recognition they deserve due to the sheer depth of every organization in baseball, it's important to remember that there's a lot more promising talent in the lower levels than you may realize. Top 100 prospect list and entertaining to read and get excited about, but they don't do the majority of prospects justice. Take Matt Mervis, who led the minors in home runs a season ago and never graced MLB Pipeline's top 100 list, for example.
That being said, we wanted to point out who is amid a breakout season that you may not be familiar with yet if you don't pay attention to the minor league system daily. Without further ado, here are five underrated prospects currently shining in the Cubs organization who are not getting the recognition they deserve.
5 underrated prospects - Connor Noland
After recording a 3.65 in his senior year at the collegiate level, The Chicago Cubs went with Connor Noland in the 9th round of the 2022 draft just a season ago. In his first year of professional ball, Noland started with the Cubs' High-A affiliate in South Bend and has recorded a 2.84 ERA in 13 starts throughout 57.0 innings. He earned Player of the Week a month ago. With most of last year's draft attention being placed on Cade Horton as of late, Noland slots in as someone who has quietly been putting up better numbers overall in 14 inning sample size larger than Horton through this part of the season (2.93 for Horton between Myrtle Beach and South Bend thus far).
Obviously, Horton's ceiling is sky-high, so this isn't to compare who's better or what have you. More so that Noland deserves some recognition in his first year of pro ball. At 23 years old and only going above 100 innings just once in his college career, there's a good amount of life on his arm, and he has plenty of potential to keep increasing his production. If he keeps it up, it'll be safe to say he deserves the nod to head to Double-A Tennessee at some point this year.
5 underrated prospects - Ezequiel Pagan
After spending all of 2022 in Myrtle Beach, Ezequiel Pagan put up solid numbers as an outfielder, slashing .292/.366/.443/125 wRC+ with 11 HRs, 68 RBIs, and 13 stolen bases in 104 games. That mark was good enough to send him to High-A South Bend to start the 23 campaign, where he has been nothing short of impressive thus far through 47 games and 205 plate appearances.
This season, Pagan is slashing .328/.385/.425/134 wRC+. His BABIP of .381 is much higher than last year's mark of .317. He is currently enjoying the best offensive stretch of his young career. Being drafted in 2018 at the age of 17, Pagan will have all of this year and next year before the Cubs will have to worry about deciding his 40-man roster status due to rule 5 draft eligibility.
If he keeps hitting for high contact and average, he will soon force the front office to promote him to a higher level. Further improvements could be focusing on slightly better numbers defensively, where he currently owns a .957 FPCT (3% below MLB average) between all three outfield spots this year.
5 underrated prospects - Manuel Espinoza
Also in High-A and enjoying a breakout season so far is 22-year-old Manuel Espinoza. He has pitched 33 innings this season, started seven games, appeared in nine, and has an ERA of 2.18. From a season ago, he has lowered his BB/9 from 4.19 to 2.18 while increasing his groundball percentage from 35.2% to 40.0% and lowering his FIP from 5.07 to 2.58. With 36 strikeouts in his 33 innings pitched, his K/9 of 9.82 is slightly higher than last year's 9.18.
Before long, you question how soon a call to Tennessee is coming for Espinoza. Like Noland before him, he has essentially remained out of the spotlight due to the rapid rise of Horton, who rightfully has all eyes on him. Nevertheless, with the Cubs eyeing a competitive window opening and being backed by a robust farm system to keep the window open, prospects that perform well need to be recognized and ascend the ranks, so long as they're not being pushed too fast. Espinoza has shown much promise this season, and it's time to keep a better eye on him moving forward.
5 underrated prospects - Jefferson Rojas
Although it's a small sample size, Jefferson Rojas' slash line of .306/.375/.449 in Myrtle Beach through 14 games has been an impressive stretch. Currently listed as Myrtle Beach's other shortstop, alongside Cristian Hernandez, the 18-year-old owns a 135 wRC+ thus far. An international signing in January of last year, Rojas slashed a promising .303/.391/.407 in 45 games and 169 plate appearances last year in the Dominican Summer League and has only continued to shine this year in Low A Myrtle Beach.
Jefferson is a prospect who has quite a way to go before he reaches the upper levels of the Cubs farm System and, hopefully, MLB. Nevertheless, he's off to a promising start, and Jed Hoyer and crew must be happy with their decision to pick him up last year. It will likely be a few years before he makes it to the Cubs, but the talent and there will be fun to watch his career unfold. Hopefully, he continues producing enough to make it to High-A this season.
5 underrated prospects - Michael Arias
At 21 years old, Cubs prospect Michael Arias has begun a breakout campaign in Myrtle Beach with the team's Low-A affiliate. He has started 11 games, notching a 2.55 ERA and an impressive 2.88 FIP in 42.1 IP. In comparison to last year in the Complex League, where he notched a 4.85 ERA and 7.12 FIP, though it was a small sample size of 13 innings, it doesn't take a deep dive to realize he clearly found something this year that's been working for him.
What I like most so far about Arias is his strikeout numbers. He has recorded a 37.2 strikeout percentage throughout his 64 punchouts so far. With a batting average against of .164 and a K/9 of 13.61, he has all the making to be a key starter once he gets further stretched out. He was recently named Pitcher of the Week and has high promise to keep building off what he started this season.