5 Chicago Cubs players facing uncertain futures after 2023
Heading into the 2023 season, the Chicago Cubs have improved on paper to the point that those players who were easily given a more significant role last season have been pushed down the pecking order to the point of uncertainty regarding their future in the organization. Most recently, we saw Anthony Kay get the axe before even throwing a pitch to make room for Trey Mancini. Though we are reaching the end of adding players via free agency, there is still the possibility of a trade that could shake things up. Regardless, the 40-man roster still needs to be finalized heading into Spring Training.
More likely than not, there will be those players in Spring Training that are on the cusp as it is that get pulled off the roster to make room for those that exceed expectations in Arizona. Of course, you also have your pending free agents that are locks for the 26-man roster but face the reality of not being in a Cubs uniform next season if extension terms aren't agreed upon. Let's take a look at five players facing uncertainty as we get ready to open the book on the 2023 campaign.
5 uncertain futures - 5. Zach McKinstry
Starting with Zach McKinstry, who has versatility in the field that gives him some value if he can figure it out at the plate. The problem is that he has yet to do much of the latter. Defensively, sure, McKinstry has been sufficient. He recorded 58 putouts between 2B, SS, 3B, and the OF, to along with a total of 103 assists. While his three errors were all at third base, he still managed an overall fielding percentage of 0.982%, with one out above average and one run prevented at 2B. Overall, solid numbers in a sample size that at least leaves you intrigued moving forward.
The floor is only set so high, however. Offensively, things begin to fall off the table for McKinstry. In 2022, he recorded a slash of .199/.273/.361 to go along with a 28.1 K% between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Cubs. The upside is there. In Triple-A alone, McKinstry has recorded 138 hits in 427 at-bats, suitable for a .323 batting average. If he can figure it out at the major league level, he becomes quite the viable piece, even if only as a trade candidate in a buy scenario at the deadline. The problem is the reality of needing more everyday playing time to find that rhythm. Nevertheless, of those mentioned on this list, he should be the safest of those facing uncertainty.
5 uncertain futures - 4. Patrick Wisdom
Coming in at number four, we have Patrick Wisdom. The pop in his bat is sought after, but the slash of .207/.298/.426 has to be improved. After recording a 2.3 WAR during the 2021 campaign in which he broke the Cubs' rookie record for home runs, that number dropped to 1.1 in 2022, according to Fangraphs. However, Wisdom recorded a strikeout rate of 40.8% in 2021, and this past season, though he managed to lower that number, 34.3% is still unacceptable moving forward.
Where the offense will be crucial to his success, there is currently too much to be desired in the field. After -15 outs above average, coupled with -12 runs prevented, the Cubs could opt to shift him to DH vs. LHP at this juncture, but the thought is that with Hosmer's ability to hit lefties, there isn't much of a case to be made other than a bench role. At third base, he recorded 14 errors in 105 games (.948 FP). He didn't record any errors in his 18 games spent at first base to his credit, but that is now a role reserved for Trey Mancini. Still, if the Cubs shift him away from 3B permanently, his role will diminish more and more if he doesn't quickly figure it out offensively.
5 uncertain futures - 3. Miles Mastrobuoni
Traded by Tampa Bay and acquired by the Cubs, Miles Mastrobuoni is an intriguing hitter who has yet to be granted the time at the major league level to figure it out. Like McKinstry before him, he can cover multiple positions and has always had success in the minors. For his career, his minor league slash is .286/.367/.395, but those numbers increase when you factor in Triple-A only with a mark of .295/.375/.445. 2022 was his best year at the plate, going .300/.377/.469, while adding in some pop in the form of 16 HRs and 64 RBIs.
The role in Tampa was just not there, as Wander Franco and Brandon Lowe lock up SS and 2B. Unfortunately, he will run into the same problem in Chicago with the recent addition of Dansby Swanson, which moves Nico Hoerner to 2B, blocking Mastrobuoni even further. On top of that, Jed Hoyer and David Ross will want to give McKinstry ABs where applicable, so where there is upside for Mastrobuoni, he has quickly found himself hitting the same wall as he did in Tampa.
5 uncertain futures - 2. Michael Rucker
Moving on to relief options, Michael Rucker could undoubtedly be the odd man out if the Cubs land a back end of the bullpen guy such as Andrew Chafin or Matt Moore. He lived to see another day after the front office chose to DFA Mark Leiter Jr., but the clock is certainly ticking. In 2022, he recorded a 3.95 ERA. Not a terrible mark by any stretch, but simply due to the depth of the Cubs' pitching right now, you don't have to force yourself to hang on to anyone you could replace with an upgrade.
Where matters get a little more complicated than just pulling the cord, Rucker still has five years of affordable team control. If he has a breakout season, you will make a poor decision to let him go. Therefore, he's just as much of a trade candidate as he is one to be DFA. If the Cubs add a reliever, we may instead see the team sever ties with Mastrobuoni while Rucker starts the year in Iowa, given that he still has two minor-league options remaining. Of course, Mastrobuoni has options, which is another reason why both players currently have question marks next to their names. Mastrobuoni, on the other hand, is more blocked than Rucker, given the depth of infield pieces at the Cubs' disposal.
With any solid production on the mound, Rucker's trade value gets a significant boost, as we saw with Scott Effross last year, who netted the Cubs Hayden Wesneski. If everything goes perfectly, Rucker and McKinstry become at least the start of a trade package to help the team meet their needs at the trade deadline.
5 uncertain futures - 1. Ian Happ
Last and certainly not least, we land on Cubs All-Star Ian Happ. After a stellar showing in 2022, Happ's uncertainty is due to whether or not the front office continues its trend of not extending key players. Granted, there have been reasons in the past with former core members that made the argument of not over-paying guys feasible points. Players that have been underperforming when talks went sour, catchers that weren't the best defensively, etc. On the other hand, Happ has begun checking all the boxes of a player who you have to dig deep to find weaknesses. And that is the biggest problem.
Given what we saw with the free agent market this winter, the money spent on players is at an all-time high. When you center your whole life around becoming a baseball player, one of your biggest dreams is to reach free agency and secure that monster payday. That is where Happ is currently in his career, and with another good year overall, his price will be high enough that he may want to test free agency no matter what to see what's there. Unfortunately, It's hard to hold that against him. For the Cubs to extend him and avoid free agency, they may need to get creative.
Contract-wise, a solid AAV with built-in incentives on top of it may do the trick. A bonus for the top 10 or 15 for MVP, rewards for specific statistics or accolades, All-Star earnings, Gold Gloves, etc. That way, regardless of what he does throughout the season, he will not find himself getting underpaid or overpaid. Of course, he could always bet on himself, avoid such incentives on a contract, and go for a higher AAV regardless of production. If he wants to be a Cub long-term, this may be the easiest way to ink a deal before the 2023 campaign concludes.