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5 bold predictions for the 2024 Chicago Cubs season
Going through the roster and determining five bold predictions we are making for the Chicago Cubs for the upcoming 2024 season.
With the start of Spring Training right around the corner, it's time for our annual predictions for the Chicago Cubs heading into the 2024 campaign. Although the roster is not fully set, I still have some hot takes and an idea about what will happen this season with certain players. Let's dive right into these five bold predictions for the Cubs. First up is Seiya Suzuki picking up where he left off in the second half of last year.
5 bold predictions for the 2024 Cubs - 5. Seiya Suzuki earns first All-Star honor
My first prediction is centered around the second half of Seiya Suzuki's 2023 season and how, if that torrid pace continues into 2024, he's a lock for the All-Star game in Texas this coming season. To recap, after a brief benching by former manager David Ross, Suzuki returned with a vengeance, slashing .313/.372/.566 with a 149 wRC+ in the second half. His batting values saw him land mainly in the league's upper half. Given that he did this throughout 256 at-bats, it's safe to say it hardly looked like a fluke.
From the first to the second half, his ISO shot up from .147 to .252, including a spike in wOBA of .326 to .393. These are all the markings of a player over a prolonged period starting to turn the corner at the MLB level. He's had hot streaks before, but this sustained production was one of the key reasons the Cubs were so close to making the postseason in 2023. His 13 home runs and 46 RBIs in 67 games to finish the season would be a 30 HR+ pace if he can have that type of production all year.
5 bold predictions for the 2024 Cubs - 4. Christopher Morel launches 30+ homers
Speaking of paces when it came to hitting home runs in 2023, Christopher Morel launched 26 over the wall but did so after starting his MLB season in early May when he finally got called back up due to his scorching hot pace in Triple-A Iowa to begin the year. Given that he only played in 107 games in 2023, his 26 homers and 70 RBIs put him on a pace for nearly 40 home runs and over 100 RBIs on the year. He did have 37 HRs and 101 knocked in between Iowa and MLB last season, for those who like to look at a whole body of work regardless of the level.
Morel's .260 ISO in 2023, was second-best on the team, trailing only Patrick Wisdom among Cubs players who registered at least 300 at-bats. My biggest worry with this prediction is how much playing time the Cubs will be able to give Morel. If they don't sign Matt Chapman, he'll be able to fill in at third base more often than not.
If the team still goes wild and signs both Chapman and Cody Bellinger, it will be hard for Morel to get everyday reps at all. However, my money is on the Cubs landing Bellinger and not Chapman, leaving Morel with more opportunity to hit as many tanks onto Waveland Ave. as possible. Morel is only 24 years old and not even entering his prime yet. Where he will field is a question mark, but the power in the bat must be included in the lineup.
5 bold predictions for the 2024 Cubs - 3. Cubs pitching finishes top 5 in the NL in ERA
Last year I narrowly missed the mark on this prediction, as the Cubs finished 6th in the National League in terms of team ERA. I have no problem going right back to the well here, as subtle improvements have been made to the Cubs' pitching staff overall. Poor in-game management last year and a disastrous second half from Marcus Stroman were the main catalysts for just missing the top 5 last season, but there's reason to believe things will improve in 2024.
This year, the Cubs will have top-notch in-game management from Craig Counsell. Where Stroman was replaced with Shota Imanaga, the latter will sustain more balanced first-half and second-half splits, as opposed to the second-half free fall we witnessed with Stroman. Furthermore, the Cubs added Hector Neris, who recorded a 1.71 ERA last season, to the back end of the bullpen. Should guys like Jordan Wicks and Javier Assad build on last year, the Cubs will quietly have one of the better pitching staffs in the NL.
5 bold predictions for the 2024 Cubs - 2. Justin Steele throws a no-hitter
At the forefront of the Chicago Cubs' pitching staff is ace Justin Steele. Last season, Steele recorded a 3.06 ERA with a 16-5 record. On top of that, he notched 20 quality starts in 2023. He started the year strong with five QSs in April and proved he could get late into a game every time he stepped on the mound. It wasn't until two poor outings at the end of the season that his ERA dipped back down into the 3.00s, where he previously had sat in the 2.00 range all season and was a front-runner for the Cy Young Award.
Steele came somewhat close to a no-hitter last year. On September 4 against the San Francisco Giants, he recorded 8.0 shutout innings of two-hit ball. The only thing that held him back from going for the complete game shutout was his pitch count sitting at 107 after the 8th inning and former Manager David Ross deciding to pull the plug after the Cubs went up 5-0 in the bottom half. I expect Steele to build on these outings this coming season and will not be surprised if he records his first no-hitter.
5 bold predictions for the 2024 Cubs - 1. Cubs win the NL Central
Above all else, I'm tabbing the Cubs to take the Central Division crown in 2024. After losing Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, the Milwaukee Brewers' outcome is questionable at best. I see the Pittsburgh Pirates needing more time to be ready to complete. The Cincinnati Reds made a few solid acquisitions and have talent. We'll see how much guys like Elly De La Cruz step forward in his second season. The St. Louis Cardinals added Sonny Gray, who I like, but the addition of Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson needed to compliment the team's pitching staff better. They now have three pitchers, Miles Mikolas, Lynn, and Gibson, who were in the bottom five of hits allowed by a pitcher last season.
Ultimately, the Cubs control their destiny if their young core steps up and continues to improve. The farm system is now highly touted, but it will need more major league-level production to carry over. I'm looking forward to seeing guys such as Pete Crow-Armstrong adjust. Alexander Canario is still young and has a high upside. Guys like Ben Brown and Cade Horton are on the way. Of course, adding Cody Bellinger back before the regular season starts will be the cherry on top of the Cubs being favored to win the NL Central Division in 2024.
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