4 under the radar Cubs prospects to watch in the Spring Breakout Game

The Pitchers

Michael Arias RHP

We’ve written a fair amount about Arias and while MLB Pipeline has him as the Cubs’ 14th-best prospect, we left him off of our top 30 which just goes again to the depth of this system. Arias had a spectacular start to the season in Low-A last year where he was striking out just about every batter he saw but as he was promoted to High-A he fell off a bit. 

While the Cubs would surely love to keep Arias in mind for a starting role, and with the depth in this system they certainly have the luxury to let him take his time to round out those hard edges, he’s also the kind of player that could be an impact arm in short stints out of the bullpen.

The thing that this organization is still lacking, despite their depth, is arms that miss bats. If for whatever reason the Cubs’ bullpen struggles to start 2024 in the same way that it struggled out of the gates in 2023 then Arias could see some time at some point this season.

As far as what to expect in the Spring Breakout game from him, expect him to get about an inning's worth of work and I’ll set the over/under at 1.5 strikeouts. This is a showcase so he won’t be worried about walking a guy or two so long as he gets some swings and misses and he’s shown a propensity to do just that. 

Drew Gray LHP

Outside of Cade Horton, Drew Gray is probably the highest-upside pitcher the Cubs have in the entire system now that they’ve traded away Jackson Ferris. MLB Pipeline had him as the Cubs’ 17th-best prospect and when we did our rankings we had him at 21, but we both agreed on the very high upside and the very low floor.

MLB Pipeline pointed out in their rundown that after being drafted and signing an over-slot deal in the third round as a high school pitcher, he blew out his elbow and hasn’t thrown more than three innings or 60 pitches in any of the three seasons since becoming a pro.

That’s disconcerting, to say the least, but that appears to be the Cubs’ MO with regards to young pitching. While Ferris was dominant in just about every start in the first half of the season last year, they kept the leash very tight, so it’s not necessarily a knock on Gray so much as it is an organizational mindset. 

Gray, much like Arias, can miss bats but it comes at the cost of walking a few guys; last season he walked 29 in just 34 innings. That being said, there’s a ton to like here and showcases are what (former) prep pitchers live for. Expect him to walk a guy or two but also expect his stuff to look every bit as filthy as top prospect, Cade Horton’s.

The Corner Infielders

BJ Murray 3B

We recently wrote about BJ Murray and his ability to win everywhere he goes. That will likely continue in this showcase. In fact it wouldn’t shock me if this game (that means nothing whatsoever to the current or future success of either team involved) hinges on a play that Murray makes.

Beyond Murray’s ability to win, the reason that both he and Haydn McGeary are players worth watching is because they occupy the positions with the greatest question marks heading into the season and they have the ability to provide those questions with answers.

If the season started today the Cubs would use some combination of:

- Christopher Morel, whose struggles in the field are well-documented and could derail an otherwise incredible team defense.
- Nick Madrigal, who is dealing with the same hamstring problems that have had him limp to mediocre seasons seemingly every year.
- Patrick Wisdom, who barely got over the Mendoza line last season by batting .205 which is somehow worse than his 2022 batting average of .207.

Obviously, that’s not ideal, so having a third baseman at AAA Iowa who had 54 extra-base hits in 2023 while leading all Cubs’ prospects in on-base percentage the year before is a fantastic luxury. If Murray starts the season hot and third base continues to look like a position of need, it wouldn’t be shocking to see him at Wrigley by the All-Star Break.

Haydn McGeary 1B

Much like Murray, McGeary occupies a position of need for the Cubs and he’ll likely start the season in AAA along with him. MLB Pipeline had him as the Cubs’ 21st best prospect and we had him at 18, but more impressive than that is that they also had him ranked as one of the ten best first base prospects in all of baseball.

McGeary rakes. That’s all there is to it. Like Murray, he was a 15th-round draft pick and not much was expected of him, but since joining the Cubs he’s hit at every level. Last season at AA Tennessee he hit .301/.415/.487. 

There’s reason to believe that he hasn’t reached his peak power production and getting out of AA where the pitchers have a bit of an advantage by using the pre-tacked baseballs we may start to see that power surge in AAA Iowa to start the season.

With Matt Mervis not on the roster due to major league service time, it looks like McGeary will draw the start and play most, if not all, of the game at first base so it should give us a really good look at what we can expect for years to come. 

The Middle Infielders

Jefferson Rojas SS

Rojas may be the most interesting prospect in the system as we enter the 2024 season. Compared to the rest of the league the Cubs tend to be very conservative when it comes to prospect promotion but Rojas appears to be the exception.

As an 18-year-old he hit .266/.342/.400 with seven homers and 13 stolen bases at multiple levels including full-season ball. There’s a possibility that he’ll start the season in High-A South Bend which would put him on track to make his MLB debut right around his 20th birthday.

There’s obviously a lot of room for change here. Ed Howard warranted the Cubs’ selecting him in the first round as an 18-year-old and since then he’s struggled in the Cubs’ organization (although we’ll get a chance to see him in this showcase as well). That being said, Howard was playing against amateur competition and Rojas has been succeeding against professionals so the sky truly is the limit.

I wouldn’t expect Rojas to start in this game with Murray likely getting the nod at third, Matt Shaw at shortstop, and James Triantos at second base, but he should at least get a couple of at-bats and a couple of innings in the field and it will be many fans’ first opportunity to see him show off his electric toolset. There’s a very real possibility that he is the Cubs’ top prospect going into the 2025 MLB season. 

Bonus Pick for this game in 2025/2026 Fernando Cruz SS

This is a showcase about the future so why not talk about the 17-year-old shortstop the Cubs just chose to invest $4 million dollars in?

There’s a possibility that it takes him a little longer to click than it took Rojas, but if he can get on the same trajectory there’s no reason we couldn’t expect to see him playing in this game in 2025 or 2026.

MLB Pipeline has loved what they’ve seen from Cruz, so much so that they had him ranked as their third-best prospect in the International Free Agency class.

They have him as a better player than recent IFA signings Derniche Valdez and Cristian Hernandez and they believe that he has the power profile to be a future third baseman if he continues to fill in his frame and lose athleticism. 

The last feather in his cap is that his cousin is former Chicago Cubs All-Star shortstop, Starlin Castro. Most fans remember Castro pretty fondly so the idea of a family member of his taking the stage in a showcase like this in a year or two as a top prospect is too juicy to pass up.

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