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3 things that have to happen for the Cubs to win in 2023

By Jake Misener |
Colorado Rockies v Los Angeles Dodgers
Colorado Rockies v Los Angeles Dodgers / Michael Owens/GettyImages
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The Cubs, at least according to Fangraphs, have improved more than any other team in the league this offseason. But is it enough to play into the fall in 2023 and pick up their first postseason win since the 2017 NLCS? We'll know in a little over nine months' time.

There's no debating that the road to a division title runs through St. Louis, a team itself that will look different than a year ago after the retirement of a pair of future Hall of Famers in Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina. You can make the case for Milwaukee, as well, but they weren't the same team after David Stearns jettisoned Josh Hader at the deadline.

In other words, the path isn't going to be easy for the Cubs. But if things break just right, they might just have enough to punch that postseason ticket. Here are 3 things that must happen for Chicago to bring October baseball back to the Friendly Confines this fall.

3 things that have to happen for the Cubs to win in 2023: #3 - Cody Bellinger improves

Look, I hope Cody Bellinger goes off, wins National League Comeback Player of the Year and plays so well that some team backs the Brinks truck up in his driveway next winter. But I'm a realist and do my best to stay away from such lofty aspirations, especially when my sports teams are concerned.

If he can just be a league average bat (100 OPS+) and maintain his Gold Glove-caliber defense in center field, it'll go a long way toward helping fill a huge void on this team. He brings enough to the table with his glove that despite a 78 OPS+ last season with the Dodgers, he still managed a 1.2 bWAR in 144 games.

Adding some of that pop he was once known for back into his arsenal could put him back on the path that made him one of the biggest names in the sport with Los Angeles. But I'm not looking for an MVP showcase from the former first-rounder; modest improvements at the dish is all I need.

Miami Marlins v Chicago Cubs
Miami Marlins v Chicago Cubs / Matt Dirksen/GettyImages

3 things that have to happen for the Cubs to win in 2023: #2 - Justin Steele builds on his breakout season

The addition of Jameson Taillon and the re-signing of Drew Smyly will do a lot to solidify the Cubs rotation and shore things up behind Marcus Stroman. Kyle Hendricks, at this point, cannot be counted upon and his status for Opening Day is already uncertain. That means Chicago will be looking for Justin Steele to do big things on the mound this year.

Last season, the left-hander emerged as a potential building block on the North Side. From May 31 on, Steele made 15 starts, working to a 2.25 ERA/3.21 FIP while holding opponents to a .235 batting average. In the second half, he was absolutely brilliant, evidenced by a 0.98 ERA in seven outings.

Those 119 innings pitched, by far, marked a career-high - and now, he's tasked will not only continuing to increase his workload, but do so without sacrificing the effectiveness he showed last season. The former fifth-round pick has his work cut out for him and will be a make-or-break piece of the equation for the club.

There are young guys who will factor into the back of the rotation, including Hayden Wesneski, Caleb Kilian and others, but David Ross is going to need Stroman, Steele and Taillon to pull their weight, especially if the Cubs want to avoid another stumble out of the gates like we saw in 2022.

Boston Red Sox v Pittsburgh Pirates
Boston Red Sox v Pittsburgh Pirates / Joe Sargent/GettyImages

3 things that have to happen for the Cubs to win in 2023: #1 - Someone has to fill the black hole at first base

The second half of the 2021 season was fun, if for no other reason than Frank Schwindel's torrid pace to close out the year after stepping in at first base following the Anthony Rizzo trade. But that feel-good story was just that - a feel-good story - and last year laid bare the inadequacies of the Cubs at the first base position.

Now, they're turning the page and hoping that a breakout prospect from a year ago, Matt Mervis, and a veteran who's fallen on hard times, Eric Hosmer, can form some sort of servicable platoon and round out the infield in 2023.

Again, in an ideal world, Mervis sets the world on fire and takes a run at NL Rookie of the Year honors. But given he has fewer than 800 professional at-bats to his name, I'm not ready to push all my chips in there just yet. Between the two, though, and the occasional Bellinger or Patrick Wisdom start, the Cubs seem to be in a much better position at first than they were this time last year.

Next. Three Bold predictions for the Cubs in 2023 . dark

And for those of you calling for Jed Hoyer's head over the Hosmer signing - cool it. If the Cubs were paying him what the Padres are, I'd be upset. But it's a league minimum deal with zero risk outside of that $700K - and gives the Cubs depth at a position they've sorely lacked it in recent years.

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