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3 surprises and 3 disappointments of the Chicago Cubs' first half
It was a roller coaster for the Chicago Cubs during the first half of 2024.
It's been an overall tough first half for the Chicago Cubs, so it can feel like there have been more disappointments than surprises. That said, there have been some really nice surprises, so we will look at a balance of both. Here are three nice surprises and three disappointments.
Three Surprises
Shōta Imanaga
The Cubs' lone All-Star representative has exceeded expectations so far. Leading the team in fWAR (2.3), Imanaga has pitched to a 2.97 ERA, 3.27 FIP, 1.1 WHIP, 98 strikeouts, and 16 walks in 17 starts. He was signed out of Japan with the expectation of being a solid middle-of-the-rotation pitcher but was not envisioned to be as efficient as he has been. He is tied for sixth in quality starts (11) in baseball. Yes, he has been bitten by the home run ball more recently (as expected from a flyball pitcher), but he still finished the first half very strong with six shutout innings in Baltimore.
Michael Busch
Jed Hoyer took a bit of a gamble acquiring the former Dodgers prospect, trading away pitching prospect Jackson Ferris to fill an important role on the team. The 26-year-old Busch enters the All-Star break leading the Cubs in wRC+ (132) and hitting .271/.357/.466 with 12 homers and a .823 OPS. He entered the season with just 81 career MLB plate appearances and has become one of the Cubs' most productive hitters. It's worth noting over his last 25 games he is hitting .305/.377/.526, which is great to see after having a bit of a rough patch in May making some counter-adjustments at the plate.
Tyson Miller
The Cubs' bullpen was in desperate need of some help early in the season due to a combination of bad performances and injuries. Miller was brought in on May 14 when he was claimed off waivers from the Seattle Mariners. He was a former Cubs' draft pick in 2016 and has since bounced around the league a bit. In 20 appearances he's pitched to a 1.66 ERA and 0.69 WHIP. He is not overpowering but he has a bit of funk that seems to have helped him so far. One might question if he can sustain this performance as the 3.76 FIP and 7.9 K/9 aren't necessarily ideal for an important reliever, but his first half was a nice surprise in terms of the results.
Three Disappointments
Dansby Swanson
Arguably the biggest disappointment of the first half, considering he is the highest-paid player on the team. While his defense is still Gold Glove-caliber, the offense has not been there. In the first half, he hit just .212/.282/.350 with a .632 OPS and 79 wRC+. The home run production (9) is not bad for him but the overall production for a $26 million player is just not where we want it to be. He did seem to show some signs of improvement in the final few games of the first half, so hopefully, that's a good sign his bat will come around.
Adbert Alzolay
After having a very solid run as the Cubs closer last year, Alzolay had a rough go to start 2024 before a significant injury sidelined him for the time being (60-day IL). When he pitched, he blew five of nine saves, giving up six home runs and pitching to a 4.67 ERA, 7.37 FIP and 1.44 WHIP in 17.1 innings. He is not the only reliever to struggle, but the importance of the closer role magnifies the struggles. Those early blown games were just a few of many to come for the Cubs in the first half of the season.
Miguel Amaya
The sophomore catcher has had a rough go so far in 2024. His bat has struggled to produce, hitting .201/.266/.288 with a 59 wRC+. The framing behind the plate (-0.1 FRM) and overall defense (-2 Statcast Fielding Run Value) haven't been great either. His struggles have been magnified by the fact that the catching position on the Cubs overall has struggled this year, which had seen veteran Yan Gomes being DFA'ed earlier this year. Amaya did take some time to work on things recently, and he finished the first half with a very good series in St. Louis, so hopefully that is a good sign for him. Even Kyle Hendricks complimented his work behind the plate in his last start. Amaya finding his way in the second half would be huge.
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