3 reasons why the Chicago Cubs are still in the running and 2 why they're not

To say that things have spiraled out of control for the Chicago Cubs over the last month and change is an understatement. Before their Memorial Day win, the team reached a season-low eight games under .500 following a sweep at the hands of the rival Cincinnati Reds. Their playoff odds have evaporated over this stretch too, dropping to only 15%.

Things are dire on the North side and fans are, understandably, furious at another year that feels wholly unserious. A complete turnaround needs to happen to avoid another year of selling off at the deadline. For all the frustrations and doubts, there are still several reasons to believe this Cubs team can hang around in the race going forward.

Reason they're still competitive: Front-end starting pitching

On Monday, Marcus Stroman demonstrated one of the main reasons to maintain some hope for the Cubs this season. While they've been on this disastrous slide, the front of the rotation has remained stout for them barring a hiccup here or there. That strength was on full display as Stroman stemmed the bleeding with a complete game shutout of the Tampa Bay Rays, the best team in baseball with the best offense in baseball.

Stroman, who holds an excellent 2.59 ERA and 3.55 FIP on the year, is just one-third of the three-headed monster the Cubs are currently running right now. Justin Steele has continued where he left off from the second half of last year with a 2.77 ERA and 2.86 FIP, even earning some early Cy Young attention. The real shocker, however, has been Drew Smyly with his 3.45 ERA and 3.62 FIP. Despite being seen as more of a back-end arm, he's been nothing short of spectacular.

There's reason to believe these three can keep it up throughout the year too. Smyly, for his part, is in the 93rd percentile of all pitchers when it comes to limiting hard contact. Steele is even better in the 95th percentile with the average exit velocity against him coming in at 84.9 mph. While Stroman doesn't rate nearly as high, he's in the 87th percentile when it comes to barrel percentage meaning hitters have fits trying to square him up. It's for reasons like these that all three have expected ERAs under three with Smyly the lowest at 2.96. That'll certainly play and keep this team in games more often than not.

Reason they're out of the race: The bullpen

On the flip side, the bullpen has been an unmitigated disaster for the Cubs of late. Only three relievers who have pitched this year (not counting Tucker Barnhart) have ERAs that don't start with a four or higher. One of those relievers, Jeremiah Estrada, has some major red flags across his 8 2/3 innings in the majors too. For as disgusting as his stuff is, he's also walking 17.5% of the batters he faces with a hard-hit percentage of 69.1.

The rest of the bullpen is marked by failures to sign more reliable veterans and major steps back from once-reliable arms. Both Michael Fulmer and Brad Boxberger, the team's two bigger bullpen additions, have been unplayable with a 7.48 and 5.52 ERA respectively. Things have taken an especially disastrous turn for Keegan Thompson who came into the season as one of their biggest bullpen weapons. Across 21 1/3 innings, he had a walk rate north of 15%(!) which helped earn him a swift demotion to Triple-A where, unfortunately, he hasn't done any better.

It's hard to see how things turn around quickly without some drastic measures. Cubs president Jed Hoyer took the blame for the bullpen failings and hinted at more starters like Ryan Jensen, Luke Little, and Daniel Palencia being in play later this year as relievers, but it'll take a lot of arms turning it around or new relievers hitting in order to make this bullpen playable. As one final measure of their struggles, the arms who have thrown in relief this year have been worth a collective 1 fWAR which just won't cut it.

Reason they're still competitive: Excellent individual offensive performances

Turning to the offense, a lot of the things that they needed to go right to be competitive have gone right. Their core four of Nico Hoerner (98 wRC+), Dansby Swanson (119 wRC+), Ian Happ (124 wRC+), and Seiya Suzuki (131 wRC+) are all off to solid starts offensively. Even though he's out with an injury, Cody Bellinger (121 wRC+) has also been more than anyone could've realistically hoped for following his disastrous final years in Los Angeles. Whether he can keep that up when he comes back is another question, but the results have looked promising so far.

It's also worth acknowledging Patrick Wisdom's hot start even though he's cooled off significantly. Through March and April, he put together an impressive .250/.324/.641 slash line with 10 homers, good for a 154 wRC+. He's a streaky hitter, but the power, especially with some lineup protection, is invaluable. Even Yan Gomes has looked very solid to start the year with a 103 wRC+ from the catching position.

Then there's Christopher Morel who has been nothing short of phenomenal through his first 17 games. He may have an absurdly high 36.6% strikeout rate, but that doesn't matter much when he also has a 185 wRC+ and 9 dingers already. If he can maintain at least some of that production throughout the year while punching out a bit less, his presence will be a major boon for this team.

As a whole, the Cubs have a team wRC+ of 105 which is perfectly solid. With that, they rank 11th in baseball, ahead of some heavy hitters like the Yankees, Padres, Astros, and the surprising Diamondbacks. That's an encouraging result for a team that figured to be a bit light on hitting.

Reason they're out of the race - Questionable management and poor performance on the margins

This might sound like two different reasons, but they sort of feed into one another. While the Cubs have a lot of great individual stories offensively, it's on the margins where they're failing. The depth they brought in for this year simply isn't going to cut it.

The one that sticks out like a sore thumb is obviously Eric Hosmer who, before he was released, was one of baseball's worst hitters with a 67 wRC+, but other struggling hitters like Nick Madrigal (62 wRC+) and backup catcher Tucker Barnhart (32 wRC+). One of the more disappointing signings for this year though has to be Trey Mancini who has continued his Astros decline with an 89 wRC+ while being worth -0.3 fWAR. Combined with the early struggles of Matt Mervis (62 wRC+), that has made first base a black hole for the second year in a row which is unacceptable for an offense-first position.

Where this problem gets exacerbated is with David Ross's lineups. All too often, he's been content with trotting out players like Hosmer over more intriguing depth pieces like Edwin Rios making for some baffling decisions. He's also had a tendency to place struggling players far too high in the order such as when we've seen Miles Mastrobuoni bat second or even leadoff. I understand he's constantly looking for some configuration that will bring the team success and play the matchup, but some of the decisions make little sense considering how much these marginal players have struggled.

If the Cubs do get to the trade deadline as buyers and not sellers, they'll need to vastly improve on the bench they currently have. The struggles aren't all on Ross, but it's becoming harder and harder to trust him when he makes so many confusing decisions on who to play and who not to.