3 reasons why a Corbin Burnes signing would transform the Cubs
Signing Corbin Burnes would unlock more possibilities for the Chicago Cubs
There continues to be smoke connecting the Chicago Cubs to an eventual pursuit of Corbin Burners this offseason when he officially becomes a free agent.
While starting pitching is not the Cubs' biggest issue right now, adding Burnes makes a ton of sense. At 30 years old, Burnes is likely looking for a deal in the $250-300 million range, which is affordable for a Cubs team that is going to be shedding significant payroll this offseason.
Not to mention the fact that the Cubs are in as good a position as anybody to sign Burnes because of Craig Counsell, who was the guy's manager when he developed from a bullpen arm into an ace-level starter. Location could also play a factor, as Burnes spent seven years playing in Milwaukee, which is less than a two-hour drive from Chicago for what it's worth. While I am not privy to Burnes' life outside of baseball, I would think he established some roots in Milwaukee during his time there, possibly making Chicago a destination for its close proximity to Wisconsin.
In any case, Burnes seems like a great fit, and here are three major reasons why the Cubs should pony up the money and invest in Corbin Burnes.
1. The rotation would be elite
A major question is whether Burnes lives up to his hype, and the answer is a resounding yes. For three straight seasons from 2021-2023, Burnes eclipsed 200 strikeouts, was selected as an All-Star, and finished top-ten in Cy Young voting (first in 2021). He has not only performed well, with a career ERA of 3.23, but he has done it consistently for several years and is on pace to put up another impressive year in 2024.
As I said, the Cubs do not necessarily need starting pitching right now, but signing an ace-level pitcher is rarely a bad thing. With a perennial ace like Burnes at the top and a Cy Young contender in his own right like Justin Steele right behind him, the Cubs would instantly have one of the best rotations in baseball.
1. Corbin Burnes
2. Justin Steele
3. Shota Imanaga
4. Jameson Taillon
5. One of Jordan Wicks, Javier Assad or Ben Brown
Simply put, Burnes would take an already solid pitching staff and put it into the upper echelon of the league. With the Cubs looking to win more ballgames and return to the playoffs in 2025, Burnes leading the way would be a major boost.
2. Burnes would take significant workload off the bullpen
In addition to his elite strikeout rates, Burnes has proven to be a workhorse since becoming a starter.
Corbin Burnes Innings Pitched as a starter:
Innings Pitched | ERA | FIP | ERA+ (avg. 100) | Strikeouts | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2021 | 167.0 | 2.43 | 1.63 | 170 | 234 |
2022 | 202.0 | 2.94 | 3.14 | 137 | 243 |
2023 | 193.2 | 3.39 | 3.81 | 128 | 200 |
2024 | 153.2 (on pace for 180+) | 3.10 | 3.59 | 1 | 144 |
This ability to go deep into ballgames and retain production throughout the season would be extremely valuable to the Cubs pitching staff as a whole. Injuries and poor performance have plagued Cubs starters in recent years, putting strain on a bullpen that feels like it has always had to scramble to stay ahead. But if Steele, Taillon, and Imanaga can stay healthy, adding Burnes would give the Cubs four guys who could potentially throw 170+ innings next year.
That kind of workload would give the bullpen much less slack to pick up, which is especially important toward the end of the year when guys start getting burned out. Starters producing like this were also one of the factors that led to the Cubs' continued success in the 2010s. A Burnes signing would be especially reminiscent of the Jon Lester deal in 2015. Lester's six-year pact with the Cubs marked the beginning of a fruitful postseason window and he was a fixture in Chicago's rotation, throwing over 900 innings over the course of his contract.
Burnes wouldn't solve all the Cubs' problems, as bullpen additions should also be heavily considered this winter to help with the blown saves dilemma.
3. Adding Burnes unlocks more trade possibilities
Starting pitching depth is arguably the Cubs' greatest asset right now. Even without Burnes, the Cubs' starting pitching mix includes Steele, Taillon, Imanaga, Wicks, Brown and Assad, with other legitimate rotation options like Hayden Wesneski, Caleb Kilian and Cade Horton. This plethora of arms gives the team trade leverage to bolster other parts of the roster that need to be upgraded, like catcher, power hitting, and the bullpen.
Adding Burnes gives you one less rotation spot to worry about and makes it easier to ship out a guy like Wesneski or Kilian. Horton would surely draw the most interest on the prospect side, but moving him could mean giving up a legitimate top-of-the-rotation arm. But a tough move like that might be necessary to upgrade the offense and the Cubs will likely be considering all options going into the winter in wake of the Christopher Morel trade.
Moving a quality starter could also be the difference in the Cubs getting a new catcher. The Athletic's Sahadev Sharma confirmed that the team pursued Angels star catcher Logan O'Hoppe at the trade deadline this year to no avail. A deal like that is going to require a significant haul of players and dipping into the starting pitching depth makes sense, especially if the Cubs sign Burnes.