3 players in the postseason the Chicago Cubs should pursue for 2024
As the Northsiders look to reach new heights after a disappointing 2023, they should look to the teams that made it to the dance for upgrades.
The 2023 postseason is upon us and, for another year, the Chicago Cubs are on the outside looking in. It's a frustrating end to a season where, at one point, they were up four games in the second wild card and had a 92% chance to make the playoffs per FanGraphs. President of Baseball Operations Jed Hoyer rightly characterized it as a failure albeit one with positive signs for the future.
This is the year for the Cubs to get aggressive in the offseason to ensure they don't fall short yet again. If 2023 was the bridge from the rebuild, 2024 should be their first real year of contention. One place they can look to for help is the teams that actually made it to the dance. A number of players on playoff rosters are due for free agency after the World Series and there are more than a few that would make good fits on the North side.
Let's take a look at three players in the postseason the Cubs should be watching closely. Specifically, I want to highlight a hitter, starter, and reliever that would be the perfect pieces to put this team over the edge.
Starter: RHP Aaron Nola
The Cubs are likely to keep much of their rotation intact from 2023. Marcus Stroman is no longer expected to opt out and Kyle Hendricks's option is a lock to be exercised, leaving one open spot alongside Justin Steele and Jameson Taillon. While they have promising young arms like Jordan Wicks and Javier Assad who surprised in the rotation, this season proved that you can never have enough depth. Instead, that final spot should be filled with another ace-like Phillies star Aaron Nola.
Nola had a down year by his standards with a 4.46 ERA, but he coupled that with an expected ERA of 3.74 and a 4.05 FIP. The peripherals are a little worrying though. Most everything about Nola's game declined from last year's heights. His strikeout percentage was lower at 25.5%, his hard hit rate was higher at 38.5% he gave up home runs at by far a career-high 1.49 HR/9, and his usually-dominant sinker was hit at a .279 clip. It's enough to be one of the righty's worst seasons yet.
To this point in his career, however, Nola has been dominant in just about every season he's pitched. He owns a lifetime 3.76 ERA and 3.38 FIP and posts at or around 200 innings a season. That combination of durability and quality is something the Cubs sorely need. That's not to say there aren't questions - he's never relied on velocity and, approaching 30, there is some trepidation about how well he'll hold up. He's bounced back from down years before though and the Cubs are in a position to take a few risks. A bad year coupled with a flooded starter's market could mean a lower price tag too.
Reliever: LHP Matt Moore
One spot where the Cubs fell short in the offseason and at the trade deadline was in the bullpen. Not enough of the team's relief prospects emerged as viable options and the team was stuck relying mostly on their core four of Michael Fulmer, Mark Leiter Jr., Julian Merryweather, and Adbert Alzolay. Sure enough, it all came crumbling down by season's end. The biggest mistake was not landing another surefire lefty to pair with Brandon Hughes who barely pitched for the team anyways.
Enter Matt Moore. Technically, he can't play in the postseason because Miami acquired him after the waiver deadline, but he's a perfect example of the type of arm the Cubs need to start adding. In 52 2/3 innings, he posted a pristine 2.56 ERA with a FIP of 3.73. In many ways, he's similar to Fulmer - a converted starter with a recent history of bullpen dominance. The Fulmer contract didn't seem wise at first, but he rewarded them for their patience with a 2.57 ERA from June onward. Moore now has two seasons of relief work under his belt and, with a 3.31 expected ERA this year, it's clear he still has some good years left in the 'pen.
The Cubs have multiple avenues to proceed in relief. Over the past several years, they've succeeded in cobbling together arsenals with veteran arms and reclamation pieces. As the expectations have risen, however, they need to start bringing in more certainty at the back end. They could break the bank for Josh Hader, but it's hard to envision Hoyer balling out for a single reliever yet when so many holes still exist. Moore is exactly the type of quality reliever they need to start targeting for the bullpen though, even if they don't reach for some of the biggest-ticket items in the game.
Hitter: Matt Chapman
While the offseason will be rich with free-agent starters, difference-makers on offense are a bit harder to come by outside of trades. The biggest bats, like Shohei Ohtani and Cody Bellinger, aren't on playoff rosters and the Cubs may ultimately decide to go down the trade route with big names like Pete Alonso and Juan Soto. The Toronto Blue Jays do have at least one free agent worthy of consideration in Matt Chapman.
The defensive stalwart is far from without his warts. Following an explosive start in which he hit .384/.465/.687 through March and April, Chapman fell flat the rest of the season with a .205/.298/.361 slash line from May 1 onward. His performance was still solid enough to earn a 110 wRC+, but he wasn't particularly close to his best days in Oakland where he topped out at a 139 wRC+ in 2018.
There seems to be a bit of bad luck baked into the results, however. Statcast shows his expected slugging percentage (.457) and expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) (.339) were both higher than the actual numbers (.424 and .328 respectively). He also posted a 98th or higher percentile average exit velocity, barrel percentage, and hard hit percentage while sporting a solid walk rate and 94th percentile chase rate. There's hope that a swing adjustment and a change of scenery can help Chapman bounce back with such a promising thump in that bat. Coupled with four outs above average at third base, there's plenty to be intrigued by.
If the Cubs signed Chapman, he shouldn't be one of their big additions but rather a supplemental piece that can give them an infield defense to be envious of. This team desperately needs power too and there's no shortage of it in his bat. Even if he's not a superstar at the plate, Chapman's one of the best options to fill a hole at third base this offseason barring a surprise trade.