3 good problems that the Chicago Cubs have entering the 2024 season
The Chicago Cubs face good problems with their lineup and bullpen. Find out who they should keep, who to trade, and how it impacts their playoff aspirations.
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As the Chicago Cubs trudge through the offseason in search of a critical bat, all signs point to a reunion with Cody Bellinger once the two sides can figure out a way to agree on a contract. My money is still on Bellinger being a Cub in 2024, and it got the wheels turning on what that means for the lineup, prospects, and the future of the team in general.
Good problems to have - 3. Where players play in 2024
Assuming the Cubs add Bellinger back, it gives the Cubs one of the more potent lineups in the National League. With Christopher Morel's and Michael Busch's upside, this team launches itself into playoff contention this season. Let's take a glance at this potential Bellinger-led lineup:
1. Nico Hoerner 2B
2. Ian Happ LF
3. Seiya Suzuki RF
4. Cody Bellinger* CF
5. Dansby Swanson SS
6. Michael Busch 1B
7. Christopher Morel DH
8. Nick Madrigal 3B
9. Yan Gomes C
It's pretty stacked 1-7, but from there it gets interesting. Pete Crow-Armstrong is the biggest name omitted from this list. Of course, he could force Jed Hoyer's hand in Spring Training for an everyday roster spot, but that creates interesting position problems. Personally, I'd prefer not to see Crow-Armstrong riding the bench most of the time like we did last season. If you're bringing him up, let him play.
Upon Crow-Armstrong earning a spot in CF, however, Busch moves to DH, Bellinger to 1B, but then it gets dicey with Morel at 3B, given that you (hopefully) won't want to take his bat out of the lineup, given that he just hit 26 HRs and 70 RBIs in only 107 contests last year. The flip side is if he sticks at 3B, it winds up blocking another rising stud prospect in Matt Shaw.
The Cubs don't have to worry about Shaw just yet, but his debut in MLB could be more imminent than we realize if he continues hitting the mark like he did in his first year of pro ball just a season ago.
Good problems to have - 2. The bullpen, in general
There's still speculation the team could add another reliever, such as Ryne Stanek, which gives the Cubs a solid bullpen but, consequently, leaves good pitchers off the major league roster. The bullpen, now without Stanek, could look like:
Javier Assad
Drew Smyly
Jose Cuas
Luke Little
Mark Leiter Jr.
Julian Merryweather
Albert Alzolay
Hector Neris
This effectively leaves Daniel Palencia, Hayden Wesneski, and Carl Edward's Jr. with a steep uphill battle to climb to Texas with the team's 26-man Opening Day roster. You could also swap out Cuas or Little, who still have minor-league options. The point here is that this is an exciting situation before adding another arm like Stanek. From there, the Cubs bullpen and almost an entire backup group of pitchers in Iowa are stacked.
In the end, Hoyer is all about depth, and if he can land another arm like Stanek, he will in a heartbeat. The solution is to send one of your younger guys with options, most likely Cuas or Little, back to Iowa to be ready to be called upon when needed, as opposed to having both on the MLB roster to start the year. As with the lineup, you want to refrain from banking on prospect production to be the team's primary source of success. Thankfully, the bullpen is the most straightforward "good problem" for the team to figure out.
Good problems to have - 1. Who the Cubs should keep, and who to trade
This is primarily concerned with the Cubs' growing number of outfield prospects in their farm system. Crow-Armstrong, Alexander Canario, Owen Caissie, and Kevin Alcantara are four names that all add serious value to a trade package. However, moving one or even two before someone works out at the major league level won't happen.
The outfielders aren't the only log-jammed position, either. Not being talked about enough are the guys such as Luis Vazquez or James Triantos, who broke into MLB Pipelines' top 100 this winter. Both infielders have nowhere to go in the Cubs organization at the MLB level. Triantos is much younger and likely a couple of years away, but a solid season from Vazquez has him deserving a shot without a position to play. The hope is that Nico Hoerner, Dansby Swanson, Matt Shaw, and Michael Busch will crowd the Infield for years. If that's the case, it's hard not to envision Triantos or Vazquez as tradeable assets if they play well this season.
Ultimately, I don't foresee the team making a blockbuster trade this winter. I see Hoyer further evaluating what he has across all levels this season and envisioning what makes the most sense regarding the Cubs' timeline of expiring contracts, coupled with the ETA of specific prospects.
For example, If Kevin Alcantara and Owen Caissie do great this year, Caissie has the higher value because he's closer to MLB status. Still, since Caissie is more blocked the next few years than Alcantara with Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki around, it makes sense for the team to hold on to the guy who has a path forward down the road, even if he's a couple of years further away. It's the same with Vazquez vs. Triantos if Hoerner hits free agency when his contract expires.
In the best-case scenario, Crow-Armstrong will hit his stride in 2024. Then, guys like Caissie and Canario can confidently be thrown in as part of a package at the trade deadline this year for another top-tier ace in the rotation. Still, don't expect Hoyer to pull the trigger on a trade just yet before being fully confident in his vision for the future and seeing it pan out at the highest level. It won't be until prospects start producing for the Cubs that we can really start entertaining blockbuster trades. These are all good problems to have. Slowly but surely, the Cubs are inching their way to a sustainable, long-term playoff run.
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