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3 Cubs who will outperform their projections in 2024
Looking at projections for the 2024 Chicago Cubs and determining whose numbers look like they can be outperformed this season.
With Cubs projections being released for the 2024 season, let's review some numbers for players who will exceed expectations and outperform their projections. Many of the projections for Cubs hitters seem fair. We know they lack true power, but they can still be a scrappy team that should be capable of winning ballgames, as long as their pitching at least does what it did last year. Let's dive into three players who will outperform their projections in 2024.
3 players who will outperform - 3. Justin Steele
After breaking out at the end of 2022 and following that up with a top-5 in Cy Young voting 2023, ZiPS projecting Steele for a 3.64 ERA isn't ludicrous, but still something I disagree with. Last season, his 3.06 ERA was higher than his 3.02 FIP, which is hard to do with an elite defense behind you. He landed in the 93rd percentile in pitching run value, recording an RV of 15 on his four-seamer. His secondary pitch, his slider, complimented him fantastically, allowing a batting average against of just .217.
Steele may incorporate another pitch into his arsenal this year, which will hurt him or earn him his first Cy Young. His two-pitch mix is elite, but having a third pitch he can execute well helps further play to more batters' weaknesses in a given matchup. Either way, his fastball and slider combo is so deadly that it's hard to envision Steele regressing to what it is still a little above league average, given how electric he's been.
3 players who will outperform - 2. Javier Assad
Javier Assad never gets the love he deserves. After recording a 3.05 ERA in 109.1 IP (down from the still-great 3.11 in 2022 in 37.2 frames), Assad has done nothing but play whatever role he slots into well. He's being projected for a steep drop off to a 4.33 ERA and 4.73 FIP in 2024. Last year, he was exactly 47% better than the league average, dominating as both a starter (3.02 ERA) and a reliever (3.07 ERA). He also trended in the right direction at the end of the season, recording a 2.48 ERA in 72.2 innings in the second half.
Assad has yet to pitch more than 109 innings at the big league level, but that will change. If Jordan Wicks gets the starting job this Spring, Assad likely slots into a long relief, next man up for the rotation type of role again. Assad broke out in the minors in 2022 with a 2.66 ERA and has succeeded in MLB ever since. I see little reason to believe he can't keep doing what he has been doing for the last two seasons.
3 players who will outperform - 1. Christopher Morel
After seeing what we saw from Christopher Morel, I understand the .250 batting average he's projected for, coupled with the 28 home runs and 85 RBIs. I disagree and say that it's time for Morel to leap into stardom. He should work on his patience at the plate, with his raw power still allowing him to hit the ball with authority. The biggest concern is finding his at-bats on a given day because if he plays daily, I see 30+ homers easily for Morel.
Last season, Morel appeared in just 107 big-league contests, about two-thirds of the season, and still managed 26 long balls. Between MLB and Triple-A, he recorded 37 bombs and 101 RBIs. His ZiPS says he'll appear in 137 games this year, so to still project him for an ISO of .230 (.260 last year) while receiving 130 more at-bats in the season and only hitting two more home runs than last year is inaccurate to me. Morel is only 24 years old and has not even entered his prime. He is the definition of an X-factor for the Cubs in 2024.
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