3 Cubs who will outperform their projections in 2024

Looking at projections for the 2024 Chicago Cubs and determining whose numbers look like they can be outperformed this season.

San Francisco Giants v Chicago Cubs
San Francisco Giants v Chicago Cubs / Quinn Harris/GettyImages
1 of 3

With Cubs projections being released for the 2024 season, let's review some numbers for players who will exceed expectations and outperform their projections. Many of the projections for Cubs hitters seem fair. We know they lack true power, but they can still be a scrappy team that should be capable of winning ballgames, as long as their pitching at least does what it did last year. Let's dive into three players who will outperform their projections in 2024.

3 players who will outperform - 3. Justin Steele

After breaking out at the end of 2022 and following that up with a top-5 in Cy Young voting 2023, ZiPS projecting Steele for a 3.64 ERA isn't ludicrous, but still something I disagree with. Last season, his 3.06 ERA was higher than his 3.02 FIP, which is hard to do with an elite defense behind you. He landed in the 93rd percentile in pitching run value, recording an RV of 15 on his four-seamer. His secondary pitch, his slider, complimented him fantastically, allowing a batting average against of just .217.

Steele may incorporate another pitch into his arsenal this year, which will hurt him or earn him his first Cy Young. His two-pitch mix is elite, but having a third pitch he can execute well helps further play to more batters' weaknesses in a given matchup. Either way, his fastball and slider combo is so deadly that it's hard to envision Steele regressing to what it is still a little above league average, given how electric he's been.