3 Chicago Cubs whose metrics indicate a hot streak is on the horizon

Given that the Chicago Cubs are entrenched in rumors that the team will be sellers at the MLB trade deadline, all attention has gone to that regard in the last couple of weeks. It's easy to get distracted by swirling rumors as trade talks inevitably heat up, but the fact is, sell or not, this team has players that, even though they have underperformed, may finally be set to turn a corner in 2024.

The Cubs will not add any impactful players to the roster at the trade deadline to solely help the 2024 season, but that doesn't mean they can't still turn it around and win ball games if they stay healthy and produce. Thankfully, these three players are overdue to take a big step forward based on their advanced analytics and sabermetrics.

3 Cubs due to breakout - 3. Dansby Swanson

Until recently, Dansby Swanson has had a rather dreadful 2024 season to this part of the year. It can be speculated that he played through injury early on in the season, and it's hindered him both at the plate and defensively. We know Swanson is an elite defender, so his numbers in the field alone scream that something more is going on. Offensively, however, Swanson has recently turned the corner, and his numbers under the hood suggest more resurgence is on the way.

Swanson 2024 :

BA: .217, xBA: .246
BABIP: .279, career: .308
BA since July 10th: .326

Let's focus primarily on the expected batting average and BABIP. An average BABIP, or batting average on balls in play, is around .300. When you find yourself with an expected batting average higher than what you're recording yet a BABIP lower than the league average, it can certainly indicate that there's been some bad luck along the way. That doesn't make up for all of it, but given that his outside-the-zone swing percentage is almost identical to last year, you can at least make the case that he should be seeing a bit more success.

As mentioned above, things have already started to turn around, as Swanson is quietly hitting .326 since July 10th. The expected stats are much better than his real numbers, and with the recent outbreak, I'm getting the notion that Swanson is getting back on track offensively. Do not be surprised to see a much more productive second half from him.

2. Christopher Morel

Christopher Morel is the king of expected stats, but they are not panning out how they should be. During the season, he has struggled to keep his batting average above .200, but he also leads the team in home runs with 18. He is a player who always appears to be one step away from reaching his potential at the major league level. His expected stats, plus stats that show potential misfortune, are eye-opening:

Morel 2024:

BABIP: .219
Batted balls: 260
Hard hit rate: 44%
BA: .199, xBA: .247
Slug: .375, xSlug: .457
wOBA: .300, xwOBA: .349

Of the 260 balls that Morel has put in play, a whopping 44.2% of them have been of the hard-hit variety or at least carry an exit velocity of 95 mph or greater off the bat. Take a look at this article on sabermetrics written last year by Chris Clegg, who beautifully breaks down different advanced stats.

In 2023, hard-hit batted balls produced a leaguewide .506 batting average, a 1.008 slugging percentage, and a .625 wOBA. On the flip side, batted balls hit below 95 miles per hour produced a leaguewide .221 batting average, a .261 slugging percentage, and a .207 wOBA.

To put it bluntly, Morel should be seeing more success. At almost 50% of batted balls being hard hit, which last year carried a batting average of around .506 according to Chris' piece above, that should mathematically translate to an overall better batting average than sub .200, and the well below average BABIP is a further indication of that.

Another improvement has been cutting his strikeout percentage by nearly 7% from just a year ago, but his batting average on balls in play in 2024 is 84 points lower than a season ago. That indicates that things should be much better for him, but he hasn't seen the results. Those results will come, and I expect another offensive outbreak from him, much like the one I predicted right before he hit four homers in the next seven games.