3 Chicago Cubs players who were cursed in 2023

The Chicago Cubs were without question an unlucky team in 2023. Although they simply didn't play well enough down the stretch to warrant a playoff appearance, it's clear by their +96 run differential and Pythagorean win/loss record that they performed more like a 90-win team than an 83-win one. That's baseball, unfortunately, and a few players on the North Side were more aware of that than anyone.

A "cursed" player is one whose results didn't quite match up with the peripherals or the eye test. Usually, the differences are visible in expected statistics like xBA, xSLG, xERA, or xFIP, though the luck also manifests directly in games when hard line drives find gloves or soft hits fall in when the data otherwise suggests they wouldn't. Unusual circumstances can also play into it to some degree as well. Every hitter deals with luck to some degree, but there are three players who particularly didn't play up to their expected numbers.

Let's take a look at a couple hitters and one pitcher who didn't get the best luck in 2023.

#1: Matt Mervis

Although it was a relatively small sample size, Matt Mervis received a disproportionate amount of bad luck in the majors. The slugging lefty first-base prospect came up in May with high hopes of galvanizing the Cubs offense with some extra power. That didn't exactly happen as he posted a paltry .167/.242/.289 slash line with a 45 wRC+ in 99 plate appearances at the big league level.

His peripherals paint a different picture, however. Often, it seemed like his hardest hit line drives were finding gloves consistently and that's backed up with a 50% hard hit rate and a 13.8% barrel rate which is double the league average. Those results are reflected in his expected stats with an expected batting average of .234 and a .424 slugging percentage. The difference is especially apparent in his weighted on-base average which sits at .239 compared to an xwOBA of .318, indicating his results were expected to be around league average.

These results still aren't ideal for a first baseman, especially with a strikeout rate over 30%, but they're considerably better than what we saw. If anything, it's an indication that we still need more data on Mervis in the majors to evaluate what he's capable of and adjust for any luck. Whether he'll get that chance with the Cubs is another question.

#2: Drew Smyly

Drew Smyly started off this season looking like the third head of a monstrous Cubs rotation with Justin Steele and Marcus Stroman at the top. Throughout the season, though, things took a turn for the worse and he lost his spot in the rotation after posting a 5.62 ERA as a starter. He was giving up way too much hard contact, giving up a .265/.337/.478 slash line to opposing hitters and 26 home runs.

Despite those apparent struggles, Smyly's expected ERA was 4.16, far better than his overall 5.00 ERA, right in line with his expected results from 2022, and more like his career ERA. His 4.96 FIP also drops to 4.71 when looking at xFIP. That's still not good, but it's an improvement. Statcast echoes the sentiment that he wasn't actually that bad. His xBA and xSLG of .240 and .400 aren't just better than what he gave up - they're an improvement on last year. Part of that can be attributed to a strong 33.6% hard-hit rate, nearly three points better than a league-average pitcher.

All of this suggests exactly what you'd want Smyly to be - he's a suitable, albeit not spectacular, back of the rotation arm. He'll likely make more appearances out of the bullpen in 2024, but there's still enough promise in the data to feel comfortable using him in a spot start when needed. Especially with his much better numbers out of the bullpen, he's sure to be a valuable piece of the team as a swingman who can give the Cubs plenty of innings and save their more powerful bullets when needed.