3 Chicago Cubs players who were cursed in 2023

The Chicago Cubs were without question an unlucky team in 2023. Although they simply didn't play well enough down the stretch to warrant a playoff appearance, it's clear by their +96 run differential and Pythagorean win/loss record that they performed more like a 90-win team than an 83-win one. That's baseball, unfortunately, and a few players on the North Side were more aware of that than anyone.

A "cursed" player is one whose results didn't quite match up with the peripherals or the eye test. Usually, the differences are visible in expected statistics like xBA, xSLG, xERA, or xFIP, though the luck also manifests directly in games when hard line drives find gloves or soft hits fall in when the data otherwise suggests they wouldn't. Unusual circumstances can also play into it to some degree as well. Every hitter deals with luck to some degree, but there are three players who particularly didn't play up to their expected numbers.

Let's take a look at a couple hitters and one pitcher who didn't get the best luck in 2023.

#1: Matt Mervis

Although it was a relatively small sample size, Matt Mervis received a disproportionate amount of bad luck in the majors. The slugging lefty first-base prospect came up in May with high hopes of galvanizing the Cubs offense with some extra power. That didn't exactly happen as he posted a paltry .167/.242/.289 slash line with a 45 wRC+ in 99 plate appearances at the big league level.

His peripherals paint a different picture, however. Often, it seemed like his hardest hit line drives were finding gloves consistently and that's backed up with a 50% hard hit rate and a 13.8% barrel rate which is double the league average. Those results are reflected in his expected stats with an expected batting average of .234 and a .424 slugging percentage. The difference is especially apparent in his weighted on-base average which sits at .239 compared to an xwOBA of .318, indicating his results were expected to be around league average.

These results still aren't ideal for a first baseman, especially with a strikeout rate over 30%, but they're considerably better than what we saw. If anything, it's an indication that we still need more data on Mervis in the majors to evaluate what he's capable of and adjust for any luck. Whether he'll get that chance with the Cubs is another question.

#3: Dansby Swanson

The captain and pseudo-assistant general manager of the Cubs Dansby Swanson wasn't immune to some bad luck throughout his first season in Chicago. His offensive numbers were merely fine with a .244/.328/.417 line and a 104 wRC+. His power dropped off from his past few seasons, though everything was right in line with his league average at the very least. Still, there were hints that Swanson had something more in his bat.

In fairness, Swanson did take some serious steps back in terms of barrel percentage, hard-hit rate, and average exit velocity, but his expected numbers were still improved from his actual results. The biggest jump can be seen in his .455 xSLG, a jump of nearly 40 points over his line. Moreover, it's almost certainly the case that his lower launch angle (13 degrees) curbed his power somewhat this year. There's reason to believe that a few tweaks, coupled with some better luck overall, will add a bit more thump to his bat.

Coupled with the improvements Swanson made this year to his strikeout (24.1%) and walk rates (10.3%), it's enough to believe he can be one of the key contributors in the Cubs lineup going forward. He's never going to be expected to carry the lineup or be the big bat that drives in a majority of the team's runs, but he can be counted on to be a consistent threat with enough power to hover around the 25-homer mark easily.

The Cubs have already indicated the plan to give Swanson a bit more rest in 2024 and that could make a big difference, especially in the second half. With his gold-glove caliber defense going nowhere, don't be surprised if he has an even better second year in Chicago.

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