3 buy-low candidates the Cubs can sign on a 1-year deal

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Given that the calendar is about to flip to January, it will become more imperative for the Chicago Cubs to land some marquee names this winter. It's unexpected that Cubs will spend at will at this juncture, and I wouldn't expect them to do much more than potentially go past the first luxury tax tier. To field a competitive team in 2024, the Cubs must land somebody who can be productive on a shorter, cheaper deal. Here are three players we can identify who are good buy-low candidates looking to bounce back and provide a spark for their team next season.

3 buy-low candidates - 3. Lucas Giolito

Lucas Giolito is a pitcher who appeared awful the last couple of seasons, but there's more under the hood to look at than what initially meets the eye. In the previous two seasons, he's recorded a 4.89 ERA, but here's the thing: In 2022, his 4.90 ERA was met with a 4.07 FIP, which suggests he was very much the victim of some spotty defense and bad luck from the Chicago White Sox. In 2023, he was solid in the first half with a 3.45 ERA but dreadful with a 7.13 in the second half.

Given that Giolito averaged a 3.47 ERA from 2019-2021, had bad luck in 2022, and was solid in the first half in 2023, it's fair to see that things aren't as bad as they immediately appear. Given the Cubs' pitching infrastructure and the way they have been able to help guys figure things out in recent years, Giolito may be a perfect buy-low candidate on a one-year contract.

3 buy-low candidates - 2. James Paxton

Given his solid career numbers, James Paxton is another interesting option this winter. In 2023, he registered a 4.50 ERA after returning from Tommy John Surgery. Having only pitched 21.2 innings between 2020 and 2021, Paxton has dealt with a slew of injuries in the last few years, but it's hard to deny his effectiveness when he is healthy. Throughout his 10-year career, Paxton has had a respectable 3.69 ERA.

The main concern is health, and this move is likely a very last-case scenario. Paxton has pitched at most 160 innings. This is the type of move if all else fails. If the Cubs are even considering rolling the dice here, it's because of how cheap a one-year deal will be and how much the front office loves to have depth. It's not the most attractive option, but it does come with an upside, given the success he has seen in his career.

3 buy-low candidates - 1. Justin Turner

An attractive fallback option for the Cubs if they somehow miss on both Cody Bellinger and Rhys Hoskins is Justin Turner. After declining his option with Boston and becoming a free agent, Turner will test the market in what will be interesting to see if he can again secure a two-year deal or if he can be had a one-year contract for more money than what he earned in Bean Town.

Still, a one-year deal with higher money will likely not break the bank for any team. In that regard, he's still a buy-low candidate, as he earned just 9.3M in Boston this season. Even bumping him up to around 12-13.0M is affordable for what he brings. This year, he slashed .276/.345/.455/114 wRC+ with 23 HRs and 96 RBIs. He is more of a DH at this point, appearing in only 58 of 146 games in the field, but he can occasionally fill in at first base or third here and there if necessary.

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3 buy-low candidates - 3. Lucas Giolito

3 buy-low candidates - 2. James Paxton

3 buy-low candidates - 1. Justin Turner

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