2024 Spring Training Chicago Cubs' Top Prospects (#20-11)

The Chicago Cubs have one of the most improved minor league systems in all of Major League Baseball. That didn’t happen because they dealt Cody Bellinger and Marcus Stroman at the deadline for a massive haul, it happened because of solid development at the lower levels and what appears to be a great crop of rookies from the Rule 4 Draft in June.  

The players we’ll look at in today’s post are the 20th-11th best prospects in the system and just about every player on this list has legitimate difference-making ability. There are a myriad of teenaged middle-infielders that should fight it out to be top-100 prospects in baseball by the end of the year, a couple of players that could (and should) start the year on the North Side, and a player that was in our top-five in the middle of the season last year.

Let’s dive into the list.

Number 20 

Derniche Valdez SS

Age: 17

2023 Level(s): Rookie Ball

Joined the organization via: IFA Signing in 2023

2023 Stats: 125 PA .234/.328/.477 6 HR, 12 XBH, 4/8 SB, 20 RBI, 17 R

Derniche Valdez is a player we’ve talked about a fair amount here between the mid-season top 30 prospects list and the piece we wrote about him being named the Cubs best prospect in Rookie Ball last season. The most pertinent information from that piece can be summarized here:

The scouting report on Valdez is that he’s a five-tool player (who isn’t at this age?) and that he should be able to stick at shortstop. The idea of a player that combines Starlin Castro and Hanley Ramirez’s production should be enough to get any fan salivating but the production on the field has been at least as impressive as that scouting report would have led you to hope. 

Valdez is still just 17 years old and may get a shot to be the Jefferson Rojas of the system this year, but if he continues to hit with the power he did last season he’ll likely be much higher on this list at the mid-season mark. 

Number 19 

Marino Santy LHP

Age: 21

2023 Level(s): Low-A Myrtle Beach

Joined the organization via: IFA Signing in 2020

2023 Stats: 75 IP, 3.12 ERA, 100/59 K/BB

Marino Santy is not a player that made the list at mid-season but he’s become harder to ignore. Prior to the 2023 season, he had pitched in just 40 total innings in his professional career over the 2021 and 2022 seasons but the strikeout numbers had always been pretty impressive. 

The problem Santy runs into is that he can be a bit wild, however last season he really toned it down. He went from a BB/9 rate of 9.2 in 2021 and 13.8 in 2022 to 7.1 last season while setting a new career high for K/9 of 12. He’s also cut down on his literal wild pitches from a whopping 16 in just 24.1 innings in 2021 to 8 in more than 3 times as many innings last season. His stuff should play in the bullpen at the very least but his ceiling is significantly higher than that and we should begin to see that at South Bend this season. 

Number 18 

Luis Vazquez SS

Age: 24

2023 Level(s): AA Tennessee, AAA Iowa

Joined the organization via: 14th Round Pick in the 2017 Draft

2023 Stats: 528 PA, .271/.361/.456 20 HR, 44 XBH, 10/20 SB, 54 RBI, 72 R

Luis Vazquez definitely wouldn’t have made this list last season (or any previous season for that matter). He’s a career .236/.304/.350 hitter who picked up more than half (20) of his career total (36) in homers last season. 

That being said, he had a career year last year and it begs the question: is this a player that could help the Cubs as early as this season? He hit for significant power in terms of both homers and doubles, he has good speed even if he was a little overly aggressive on the basepaths last season and he can get on base while playing solid middle-of-the-diamond defense. 

Good teams have players like Vazquez who come out of nowhere and help the major league club when things go awry. In a perfect world, Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner play 162 games each at shortstop and second base respectively, but in the real world, it’s nice to have a solid player like Vazquez waiting in Iowa if he’s needed. 

Number 17

Brian Kalmer 3B

Age: 23

2023 Level(s): Rookie Ball, Low-A Myrtle Beach

Joined the organization via: 18th Round Pick in the 2023 Draft

2023 Stats: 149 PA, .357/.426/.667 10 HR, 18 XBH, 0/1 SB, 42 RBI, 26 R

This man hasn’t missed a beat since going pro. He started his college career at Arizona State and transferred to Gonzaga to be an extra large fish in an extra small pond but he’s continued to eat in the professional ranks as if he were still using metal bats in the West Coast Conference. 

The 18 extra-base hits he had in just 149 plate appearances are impressive and if you extrapolated it out for a full season he would have had more than 65 extra-base hits. We wrote about him in our post-draft coverage last season and what we had to say then only holds more true today: 

Kalmer is going to be a name to keep an eye on… Personally I think calling him a third baseman is being extremely optimistic as he seems like much more of a first base/designated hitter type, but the bat seems to be good enough to carry the position.

Number 14 

Luke Little LHP

Age: 23

2023 Level(s): High-A South Bend, AA Tennessee, AAA Iowa, MLB

Joined the organization via: 4th Round Pick in 2020 MLB Draft

2023 Stats: 63.2 IP, 2.12 ERA, 105/42 K/BB

Luke Little may legitimately be my favorite player on this list. He is a behemoth at 6’8 220 pounds and he provides something the major league club desperately needs: left-handed, high-leverage bullpen capabilities. 

Little strikes guys out and he really doesn’t walk all that many guys. Last season he pitched at three minor league levels before getting the call to the majors and in those three levels, he struck out 14.8 batters per nine innings. That’s impressive but it’s barely off of the pace that he’s had for his entire minor league career of 14.4 and less than his sterling 16.2 in his brief major league stint last season.

At 23 years old, Luke Little should not only be a top prospect in this Cubs system he could be one of the top bullpen arms in the league in just a few seasons. 

Number 13 

BJ Murray Jr. 3B

Age: 24

2023 Level(s): AA Tennessee

Joined the organization via: 15th Round Pick in 2021 MLB Draft

2023 Stats: 542 PA, .263/.382/.462 16 HR, 54 XBH, 14/17 SB, 74 RBI, 71 R 

BJ Murray hits the ball hard. Last season he had an ISO of .199 and racked up 54 extra base hits in 542 plate appearances. The idea of a third baseman who can get an extra-base hit every ten at-bats while carrying a batting average of over .260 and an OBP of over .380 is something that the Cubs haven’t had since they traded away Kris Bryant. 

Murray has been this guy since he was drafted out of Florida Atlantic. In his first season with the Cubs in 2021, he hit .286/.344/.482 and in 2022 across Low-A and High-A he hit .286/.410/.429. In 2021 Murray may have been selling out for power a little bit and the pendulum may have swung the opposite direction in 2022 as he saw his OBP skyrocket and his SLG fall a bit, but last season he seemed to have found his goldilocks zone. 

Having spent all of 2023 at AA Tennessee it seems likely that Murray will push to start at AAA Iowa and be just a short bus ride away from Wrigley if the lineup needs a little bit of extra pop. 

Number 12 

Alexander Canario OF

Age: 23

2023 Level(s): Rookie Ball, High-A South Bend, AAA Iowa, MLB

Joined the organization via: Kris Bryant Trade with San Francisco Giants

2023 Stats: 233 PA, .273/.356/.488, 9 HR, 25 XBH, 2/2 SB, 47 RBI, 33 R

Alexander Canario’s return last season was nothing short of miraculous. He had a freak injury that derailed what should have been a very promising year but he rehabbed hard and still managed to find himself in Chicago by the end of the season. 

The thing that held Canario back more than any injury last season though appeared to be David Ross. Despite mashing to the tune of a .844 OPS in the minors, when he received the call up to the majors Ross chose to stick with the exhausted regulars rather than the fresher Canario. He got 17 at-bats at the major league level and hit .294 with one homer that caused fans to get very loud about the decision to keep him on the bench.

Canario should conceivably start the season in Chicago this year unless a major trade or signing leads to a lack of playing time. Considering the amount of time he’s missed over the last couple of seasons, the most important thing to Canario’s development will be consistent at-bats, but fans will likely want those at-bats to come in games that are a little more important than AAA games. 

Number 11 

Jackson Ferris LHP

Age: 19

2023 Level(s): Low-A Myrtle Beach

Joined the organization via: 2nd Round Pick in 2022 MLB Draft

2023 Stats: 56 IP, 3.38 ERA, 77/33 K/BB

Maybe we were a little bullish on Jackson Ferris last season, but everything we said still holds true today. 

I understand that there are a lot of people that will use the fact that a Low-A pitcher is ranked higher on this list than two guys knocking on the door at AAA to invalidate it, but this is an instance of star power outweighing a high floor. If we look at the best case scenario for guys like Ben Brown, Cade Horton, Jordan Wicks etc. I see middle of the rotation on a division-winning team or a number two on a solid wild card team.  When I look at Jackson Ferris I see a guy that could be a legitimate ace, someone that has the possibility to not only be the best pitcher in our system but potentially the best left-handed pitching prospect in all of baseball and anchor a staff that is World Series bound. 

Cade Horton certainly looks like more than a middle-of-the-rotation arm right now and Ferris slowed down a little bit from his torrid place to start last season, but I still see legitimate ace potential from him. That’s how incredible this farm system is. We haven’t even reached the top ten players on this list and we have a player that could become one of the best pitchers in baseball on the outside looking in. 

Ferris’s numbers won’t jump off of the page at you. 77 strikeouts in 56 innings is solid and 33 walks is a few too many. A 3.38 ERA is fine, and a 19-year-old at Low-A isn’t astounding. That being said, you have to see him to truly understand why he is on our list, and if I keep writing much longer I may find myself creeping him back into the top ten.

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