2024 MLB Draft: 2 realistic and 2 not-so realistic options for the Chicago Cubs at 14

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We’re still months away from the 2024 MLB Draft, but there’s never a bad time to look at ways the Cubs could improve their farm system.

About a month ago we wrote something with answers to all of your questions on the when and where for the MLB Draft, and in that piece, we also threw out a couple of options you could see the Cubs look at when they draft at pick number 14 based on picks they’ve made in the past.

The quick recap on previous first-round picks is that the Cubs have done a great job of listening to the data and drafting college players rather than prep players. Beyond that, the numbers show, as we look at potential options for the Cubs, that we need to focus even more on college hitters specifically.

It may be a few years before we can take a shot at drafting the Japanese Prince Fielder, who just signed a scholarship offer to attend Stanford, but these guys wouldn’t be too bad to add, either.

Mock Drafted Option: Brody Brecht RHP Iowa

Brecht is the exact kind of player that I’d advise against drafting in the first round. He’s a pitcher (problem number one) coming from a program not known for baseball (problem number two) in a conference not known for baseball (problem number three).

That being said, he is electric. He’s a former Iowa Hawkeyes Wide Receiver but that didn’t lead him to getting hit very often as they couldn’t throw the ball out of their shadow. He’s a 6’4 225-pound righty that’s carrying a 1.76 ERA at this point in the season with 33 strikeouts over 15.1 innings.

The Cubs have a history with former football players with Cade Horton having signed to play football and baseball at Oklahoma and Jeff Samardzija leaving behind a potential first-round future as a receiver at Notre Dame. Drafting a pitcher in the first round is a high-risk play but if this pick came to fruition more than six months after it was mocked, I wouldn’t be too mad.

Unrealistic Option 1: Charlie Condon OF/1B Georgia

Condon has played himself into legitimate 1.1 conversations. Let’s break down the measurables first. He’s a 6’6, 211-pound sophomore left fielder in the SEC (who had a couple of good outfielders last season go in the top five).

Last year as a freshman he hit .386/.484/.800 with 25 homers. To put that into perspective in Kris Bryant’s draft year he hit .329/.493/.820 with 31 homers.

This season he’s hitting an otherworldly .639/.696/1.389 with seven homers and more walks (8) than strikeouts (5). He has an OPS of over 2.000. The man is a legitimate alien and his lanky frame would imply that he still hasn’t even fully filled out his power potential. It is likely he will be a Guardian or a National, but if by some insane turn of events, he’s available at 14, the Cubs have to grab him.

Unrealistic Option 2: Jac Caglianone 1B/LHP Florida

It seems like most teams will be looking at Caglianone as a 1B/DH rather than as a LHP considering he had a modest K rate last season and in his one start so far this year he gave up three runs over three innings.

If we look at him in the batter vacuum and recognize he’s likely a DH, and if he plays in the field he’s limited to first base, you’d have to wonder: why would this be an unrealistic option at 14? Don’t teams tend to go for the more athletic, middle-of-the-diamond players early?

Well, it’s because he mashes.

He’s improved his slash line in all three seasons at Florida and this year he’s hitting .486/.578/.757 with more walks (7) than strikeouts (3). It may not be as astounding as Condon’s numbers above, but he’s a legitimate power option that will likely go in the top ten picks. However, if for some reason those athletic prep players and pitchers start to climb we could have a shot.

Realistic Option 1: Tommy White 3B LSU

When we wrote about the draft last month we had Tommy White as our pick for the Cubs at 14. He’s a third baseman now, though he may end up at first base if he continues to fill out and lose range. He’s in the SEC playing against top competition and he’s hit at every stop he’s been to (high school, NC State, and now LSU).

His numbers are down from last year. In 2023 he hit .377/.435/.729 with 24 homers and another 24 doubles. This season through ten games he’s hitting .325/.404/.525 and those are great numbers, especially in the SEC, but they’re not worthy of a top-ten pick in a class like this.

In baseball, you never draft for need at the major league level (unless you’re the 2023 Angels trying to keep the greatest player of all time happy). That being said, the weakness in this system as a whole is infield power and White has a track record of providing just that.

Realistic Option 2: Hagen Smith LHP Arkansas

This is one that we may end up laughing at in a few months and saying “realistic at 14? The guy went 1st overall!”

He’s started three games in 2024 and he’s struck out 31 batters over 13 innings on his way to a 2.77 ERA. Does it help that in one of those three games he had 17 strikeouts to lead Arkansas to a win over a top-ten Oregon State team? Yes, yes it does. At one point Smith had 15 consecutive outs recorded by strikeout in that game.

Again, you don’t draft for need in baseball, but the Cubs system is woefully lacking in two things: legitimate power, which we addressed with Tommy White, and pitchers that can miss bats.

There’s not a pitcher in this class that misses bats as frequently as Smith and if other teams don’t view that as a strength and snatch him up prior to 14, then the Cubs should be happy to draft this particular pitcher in the first round.

Sleeper Option: Cam Smith 3B Florida State

Cam Smith is currently sitting in the 20’s on most mock draft boards so this pick would be the Cubs overreaching. That being said, he plays serviceable third base and this season he’s hitting .500/.583/.633 with more walks (4) than strikeouts (3).

Florida State has had a rough time of getting guys to make the transition that appeared to be top draft prospects like Drew Mendoza in the past, but if Smith can continue the torrid pace he’s on to start the 2024 season he could easily creep into the top 15.

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