2023 MLB Draft: The Guys That Shouldn't Be Available at 13 for the Chicago Cubs

2 of 3

Starting today and continuing every Friday until the MLB draft on July 9th, we’ll be breaking down the top college hitters that the Chicago Cubs should consider taking with the 13th overall pick. Other writers may choose to write about high school bats or pitchers in either the college or high school ranks, but as I posited earlier this week, the safest and highest upside play in the first round over the last 20 years has been to draft the college hitter so that’s what I’m going to hone in on.

The two hitters we’re looking at this week should not be available when the Cubs pick. That being said, players fall all the time for one reason or another and if either of these two ended up on the North Side then Cubs management (and fans) should be ecstatic.

Next week we’ll look at four players that could be there when the Cubs pick at 13. The last week in June we’ll dive into potential underslot options that will almost assuredly be there for Chicago to consider and finally the week prior to the draft we’ll post a piece that has a smattering of the writers from Cubbies Crib weigh in on the pick they want to see the Cubs make.

For now, here are two players that will almost certainly go in the top five of next month’s draft, but it would be a ton of fun if they fell:

Dylan Crews OF LSU

Athletic: #1

Fangraphs: #1

MLB.com: #1

In a year that sees Victor Wembanyama as the clear number one in the NBA Draft, Connor Bedard as the clear number one in the NHL Draft, Caleb Williams as next year’s clear number one in the NFL Draft and Rose Zhang win her first event on the LPGA Tour after dominating the Amateur ranks, we can add one more phenom to the list. Dylan Crews is as clear cut a number-one overall pick as there has been in recent memory.

Keith Law of the Athletic pointed out that “Crews was on scouts’ radar as early as his junior year of high school.” He (much like everyone else) was adversely impacted by the pandemic and while he would have likely been a first round pick coming out of high school he chose to enroll at LSU and his time there has been awe-inspiring, to say the least.

As a freshman he played right field rather than his customary center field and he put up a .362/.453/.663 slash line in 63 games with nearly as many walks (39) as strikeouts (44). He obviously hit for average but he also hit for power, racking up 18 home runs and 36 total extra base hits and he also stole 12 bases. In his sophomore season he “regressed” slightly, seeing his average fall to a measly .349 but his OBP and SLG increased as he hit 22 home runs and a total of 37 extra-base hits. The most important thing he did last season though was transition back to center field where he’s expected to play as a plus defender.

Even if you believe what Fangraphs says when they say, “Crews will show you jailbreak-y, sub-4.1 run times, and he is a plus runner, but his reads in center field aren't great and he projects to an outfield corner in the big leagues,” that’s still an excellent everyday player with center field instincts playing in the corner rather than a Kyle Schwarber/Yordan Alvarez type that was there out of necessity.

Finally this season he’s been an alien. He has a .432/.573/.736 slash line with significantly more walks (61) than strikeouts (40). He’s stolen fewer bases but he’s picked his spots and is a perfect 6-for-6 in his attempts. Very rarely do you find a true five-tool player that is as polished as Crews is and that’s why we’re likely to see Pittsburgh draft him with the first overall pick, but if for whatever reason he were to fall this is the exact kind of player worth going way over slot value to sign.

Keith Law finished his scouting report by saying that Crews “should be in the majors before the end of 2024.” To put that in perspective, if Pete Crow-Armstrong is in the majors by the end of 2024, Cubs fans should be overjoyed and he’s been a professional since 2020. That’s the impact of drafting a college hitter versus (an albeit, extremely talented) high school hitter.

Wyatt Langford OF Florida

Athletic: #2

Fangraphs: #3

MLB.com: #3

Wyatt Langford is the MLB equivalent of Scoot Henderson. Henderson would likely have been the number one overall pick in most NBA draft classes, but in this year’s class, he’s simply outshined by a generational talent in Victor Wembanyama. Langford is in an extremely similar position. He has an otherworldly slash line that is favorable to just about anyone, and he did it against the best competition in the country. However, Crews put up slightly more impressive numbers while at least having the possibility of playing center field at the next level whereas Langford is resigned to a corner and that’s what gives Crews the edge.

Keith Law began his scouting report by looking at the numbers:

Langford only hit .250 as a freshman for Florida … because he went 1-for-4. Since then, he’s hit .373/. .480/.762 in 114 games for the Gators, with 42 homers and more walks (80) than strikeouts (78), while playing in, yes, the best conference in college baseball. He’s even outslugged Crews this year within the SEC. In a typical year, he’d be the no-doubt first pick, but this is an atypical year in all the best ways, with five players I think would reasonably be in the discussion for the first overall pick in the majority of draft classes.
Keith Law

Law would go on wonder if Langford’s iffy defense (despite 70-grade sprint speeds) would be comparable to Derek Fisher, but Fangraphs aligns him more closely with Cubs-killer Pat Burrell. Both reports reference the fact that Langford looks less than comfortable in the outfield but in a world that now employs the DH across both leagues I find myself not being especially concerned with that. MLB.com went deeper on his defense and said:

While he was a third baseman and a catcher in high school, Langford started every day in left field for the Gators in 2022. There was some thought he’d slide over to center field this year, and reports on him there last fall were very encouraging, but he ended up back in left once the 2023 season got underway.
MLB.com

Fangraphs stated that a majority of his power numbers come on letter-high pitches due to a short and compact swing, and they wonder if that swing at the professional level will have enough offensive production to carry the corner outfield position.

Again, I don’t view that as a major concern. Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki are solid corner outfielders that put up below average power numbers. Beyond that, I have a hard time understanding why a player with his power numbers against stellar competition would have concerns for the next level when his swing is as repeatable as Langford’s is, and his strikeout rates are so low, but I guess we’ll find out.

Again, there is almost no chance whatsoever that either of these two premier outfielders are available with the 13th pick. However, in 2016 Kyle Lewis was the number three ranked player and he fell to number 11. In 2018, Brady Singer was the number two ranked player and he fell to number 18. In 2021 Khalil Watson was ranked number four going into the draft and fell to number 16. Players fall, it happens. Maybe the Cubs could get lucky and one of these two could fall into their laps at number 13.

More Chicago Cubs News

manual

Home / Chicago Cubs News