2023 MLB Draft: The Guys That Should Be Available at 13 for the Chicago Cubs

Today we’ll be continuing our breakdown of collegiate hitters that will be available in the MLB draft on July 9th. A couple of weeks ago we looked at two of the SEC’s best that likely won’t be there when the Cubs pick at number 13, last week we looked at four guys that should go somewhere in Chicago’s range, and this week we’ll look at another handful of players that should definitely be there. 

Other writers may choose to write about high school bats or pitchers in either the college or high school ranks, but as I posited earlier this week, the safest and highest upside play in the first round over the last 20 years has been to draft the college hitter so that’s what I’m going to hone in on. 

Next week we’ll hit on some underslot options, and the week prior to the draft we’ll post a piece that has a smattering of the writers from Cubbies Crib weighing in on the pick they want to see the Cubs make. 

For now, here are four players that the Cubs could draft and save some money to spend on high-end players later in the draft.  

Brayden Taylor 3B TCU

Athletic: #16

Fangraphs: #31

MLB.com: #30

Taylor reminds me a lot of Josh Jung when he was coming out of Texas Tech. The fact that he’s a third baseman rather than a shortstop hurts his draft stock because teams want the up-the-middle player. That being said, Taylor has produced at his highest levels in the biggest moments.

Keith Law of the Athletic said: 

He had a low BABIP this year of just .307, inconsistent with how hard he hits the ball and how often he does so. He also slumped in the middle of the season, but had a huge Big 12 tournament, going 8 for 16 with four doubles and three homers, with a .305/.430/.650 line heading into the regionals, and a career-best 21 homers.

Having a guy that turns it on in the playoffs is something you love to see. Would I have loved to see him hit for the entire season? Yes. But baseball is a game of inches and more than that it’s a game of luck and when you get BABIP’d to death the way he was during the season you have to know that a bounceback is coming. 

He may have sold out for his power a little bit this year posting a career low in batting average and OBP but a career-high in slugging and OPS, but it worked. He hit 23 homers this season, almost as many as his previous two seasons combined (25) and he still managed to walk (53) almost as often as he struck out (58). He doesn’t have incredible speed but he does take advantage with his baserunning ability as he hasn’t been caught stealing since his freshman season and has gone 38-for-39 in his attempts for his career. 

In Jim Bowden’s breakdown of his top 25 players in the draft he said:

He profiles as a future .290 hitter with 40 doubles and 25 home run power. There is not a lot of risk with this pick: He has a high floor and an All-Star-type ceiling.

Finally, Fangraphs took a deeper look at him as a defender as they didn’t love the bat as much as Bowden or Law and said:

He's a very rangy defender with a plus arm, and as long as he's getting to most of his power, he can have a 40-grade hit tool and still be an important big league contributor, if not an everyday third baseman.

I wouldn’t be upset if this were the pick. Taylor has good baserunning ability, and defensive capabilities that have scouts saying he could be a less-than-mediocre hitter and still be an everyday player at an important defensive position, and other scouts love his bat enough to slap All-Star caliber numbers on it. Not bad. 

Jacob Gonzalez SS Mississippi

Athletic: #19

Fangraphs: #35
MLB.com: #15

Of the nine players we’ve looked at so far as options for the Cubs, Gonzalez strikes me as the most likely based on the scouting reports that are out there. Everyone raves about his defensive abilities, his leadership skills, and his innate ability to help his teams win, and all of those are attributes that the Cubs have been known to covet. 

Personally, I don’t love the bat. He’s had an OPS over 1.000 just once in his career and it came during the National Championship season his freshman year. This year he batted .327/.435/.564 and hit 18 doubles and 10 homers while walking (35) more often than he struck out (28). That being said, when you’re looking at college players the goal is to see something that stands out. A tool so loud you can’t ignore it. He went 0-for-2 in stolen bases this year to take him to a career total of 6-for-14. His 10 homers and 35 walks both marked career lows. 

That being said, you’ve got to assume that the scouts know what they’re talking about when they hype his defense and leadership skills. MLB.com argued that he may be the best shortstop in the class:

Gonzalez earned national freshman of the year recognition in 2021 and helped Mississippi win its first-ever College World Series championship last June. As a junior, he has a chance to pass Drew Pomeranz (fifth overall in 2010) as the highest-drafted player in Rebels history. Some clubs consider him the best shortstop in the Draft and he has started there for the U.S. Collegiate National Team the last two summers.

Keith Law thinks he can definitely stay at shortstop but doesn’t expect him to have real high end upside:

Gonzalez projects to stay at short with great instincts and soft hands, although he’s a fringy runner and some scouts use that as a proxy for a player’s ability to handle shortstop long-term. I think he’s a solid regular at short, not a star, and in some drafts that’s a top 10 pick, but this year it’s probably less.

Jim Bowden definitely seems to be the highest on Gonzalez (to the point that I was concerned he may have been talking about a completely different player):

He’s a left-handed hitter with elite bat-to-ball skills that include electric bat speed, consistent barrel contact and the ability to spit on pitches out of the zone. He has tremendous power to pair with his on-base skills. He’ll probably end up at third base but could stay at shortstop initially and has a strong arm from deep in the hole at short. He’s probably the best shortstop prospect since Alex Bregman was drafted by the Astros at No. 2 in 2015.

All that being said, Fangraphs gave an extremely deep dive into what they believe we can expect from Gonzalez and where his deficiencies are: 

Gonzalez is a really tough evaluation because he performed for three years in the best conference in the country, but his swing and the way he plays defense are both atypical of a good big leaguer…

He shares many similarities with Bryson Stott: a left-handed hitting shortstop with a swing geared for low-ball contact and secondary skills that have allowed him to get by on defense despite his non-traditional style of throwing and middling range...

His level of statistical performance is rare and Gonzalez will barely be 21 on draft day, but his swing has a huge hole at the top of the zone that I fear will be exploited in pro ball.

Gonzalez is the kind of player that I’d probably be disappointed to see the Cubs draft. The scouts are all so divided on him in every aspect. Some believe that he has the skill to stay at short, some think he’ll be at second or third base. Some scouts think he has a hole in his swing and others think he has the best bat at shortstop since Alex Bregman. Regardless, he’ll be a top-15 pick. He’s won meaningful hardware as the National Freshman of the Year and National Champion at Ole Miss and he’s been a contributor for the US National Team for two years in a row. Whether he can hit or not, whether he can play short or not, it’s all irrelevant because during the draft every team is trying to find the guy with the skills they think are mandatory and they’ll worry about teaching the rest later. I just don’t feel super confident placing that bet with my first-round pick.

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