2023 MLB Draft: Mock Draft round-up for the Chicago Cubs and the 13th pick

Mock draft season is upon us and it’s time to dive into some of the options that may or may not be available to the Chicago Cubs at number 13. The great thing about the MLB draft in comparison to any other draft you’ll find is the bonus pool system because it keeps the mystery alive for every single team and every single pick. 

In the 2014 MLB Draft, the Cubs made waves by selecting a player that many outlets had outside of the top-15, and MLB.com had as the sixteenth-best player in the draft, at number four overall. The Cubs didn’t do this because they were geniuses and saw something no one else saw, they did this by selecting Kyle Schwarber and giving him a signing bonus of $3.125 million (significantly less than the picks slot bonus of $4.6 million) they had the ability to select high school players that were considered difficult to sign away from their college commitments. In that draft, the Cubs managed to turn that surplus bonus money into a couple of prep pitchers in the form of LHP Carson Sands, LHP Justin Steele, and RHP Dylan Cease. Not bad.

In the 2022 MLB Draft the Cubs employed a similar plan as they drafted the highest helium prospect in recent memory, Cade Horton with the 7th overall pick and signed him to a bonus of $4.45 million despite a suggested slot bonus of $5.71 million. They used their extra capital to go get prep pitchers Jackson Ferris and Nazier Mule. Obviously, less time has passed and we won’t know what those returns look like for maybe half a decade, but so far Ferris looks like a legit top-of-the-rotation arm.

The reason to even bring all of this up is that the MLB Draft is wild. It is unpredictable. No matter how many times Keith Law, Jim Callis, etc. beat the drum of “best player available” it’s significantly more nuanced than that. In baseball, it’s about creating the best draft class available, and that makes it a hell of a lot more fun.

So who are the Cubs allegedly targeting this season? Who might be available at 13? Let’s find out.

Matt Shaw (SS) Maryland

.359/.467/.743 289 PA, 75 R, 20 2B, 1 3B, 23 HR, 43 BB, 38 K, 17 SB

Keith Law of the Athletic has the Cubs taking Matt Shaw. He references the current Front Office’s interest in advanced metrics and mentions Shaw’s numbers:

Shaw is one of the best pure hitters in the draft class with metrics to match, something the Cubs are clearly aware of given their choice of Cade Horton with their first pick last year. 

Fangraphs has a good write-up on him that compares his compact 5’11 frame to Dan Uggla but also talks about some of his drawbacks. His arm may limit him to second base, which isn’t a massive problem as the Cubs still covet middle-of-the-diamond kinds of players. That being said, the thing that gives me a bit of concern is that they discussed his inability to cover the upper third of the plate which reminds me of a college bat that I was sure was the real deal. He put up stellar contact and power numbers and was drafted in the first round and now finds himself in AAA due to that same inability to catch up to the high fastball. I’m not saying Matt Shaw is Keston Hiura, I’m just saying that the profile of a player that can only cover ⅔ of the plate scares me a bit.

Tommy Troy (SS) Stanford

.402/.482/.716 227 PA, 61 R, 14 2B, 4 3B, 13 HR, 26 BB, 29 K 16 SB

Keith Law listed another college shortstop as an option for the Cubs at this spot. This is going to be one of those annoying options over the next couple of weeks as the lazy player comp is… Nico Hoerner, another Stanford middle infielder matches the description that Fangraphs had for him in their scouting report:

Troy is a twitchy little second baseman with a blend of power and contact that might make him an everyday player if his very aggressive approach doesn't get in the way.

Based on the numbers I don’t have a ton of problems with the approach, especially considering the improvements he’s made this season. He has fewer strikeouts than he’s ever had before and has walked nearly three times as often as he did last year. Approach matters, but guys like Javier Baez and Christopher Morel have done just fine in Cubbie Blue without much of an approach so I’m not too worried.

Rhett Lowder (RHP) Wake Forest

11-0 14 G, 1.73 ERA, 88.2 IP, 17 BB, 10 K, .216 BAA

Lowder is the pick that Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com had the Cubs getting with the 13th pick in his May 18th mock draft, and he’d be a nice pitcher to pair with Cade Horton as college righties in back-to-back years. He gives a brief write-up of Lowder and makes the joke that even I find too cringey to utter:

He might not have Lowd stuff (sorry, couldn’t resist), but he’s been extremely consistent and has an ERA under 2.00. He’s had back-to-back seven-inning shutouts, which certainly doesn’t hurt his stock.

Fangraphs has him as their 10th-best prospect in this draft and compare him to Logan Webb but the thing that caught my attention the most was that they expect him to move quickly through the minor leagues. If the Cubs are truly intending to open the window to contention and stay relevant for as long as possible, then having as many arms available (even if they don’t have the upside of some of the farther-off prep pitchers) makes sense. Lowder is the kind of college arm that has mid-rotation upside and that’s good enough. Not every player in every draft needs to draw a comparison to Clayton Kershaw or Mike Trout. Every team has a number four starter, and the really good teams have a number four starter that helps them win games. If Lowder could be that for the Cubs, I’d be ecstatic, but my hope after researching some of the names in this draft is definitely Bradfield.

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