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So who should the Cubs draft?
The Cubs had five drafts in the last 20 years that they drafted in the top six picks. They selected:
- HS OF Ryan Harvey in 2003 (0 WAR)
- HS 3B Josh Vitters in 2007 (-1.3 WAR)
- HS OF Albert Almora in 2012 (3.2 WAR)
- College 3B Kris Bryant in 2013 (28.8 WAR)
- College C Kyle Schwarber in 2014 (10.5 WAR)
In the three years that they drafted the high school hitter their combined WAR was 1.9. The combined WAR of the next college hitter taken in those respective drafts was 55.3.
Year | Player the Cubs Drafted | Next College Hitter Taken |
|---|---|---|
2003 | Ryan Harvey (0 WAR) | Nick Markakis (33.6 WAR) |
2007 | Josh Vitters (-1.3 WAR) | Matt Wieters (18.3 WAR) |
2012 | Albert Almora (3.2 WAR) | Tyler Naquin (3.4 WAR) |
In the two years that they drafted the college hitter their combined WAR was 39.3. The combined WAR of the closest high school hitter taken in those respective drafts was 1.6.
Year | Player the Cubs Drafted | Next High Schooler Taken |
|---|---|---|
2013 | Kris Bryant (28.8 WAR) | Clint Frazier (0.4 WAR) |
2014 | Kyle Schwarber (10.5 WAR) | Nick Gordon (1.2 WAR) |
Starting later this week, we’ll be diving into a scouting report on one college hitter per week that looks like a good fit for the Cubs.
There may be a flashy college pitcher that has a 100-mile-per-hour fastball, or a high school hitter with light-tower power, but if the Cubs want to draft a player that has the ability to help them in their next championship run, they’ll need to look at the college hitters.
It is rare for the safe pick to also be the upside pick, but in the case of a first-rounder in Major League Baseball, drafting a college hitter is really the only answer.