2023 MLB Draft: Four Guys That Should Be Available at 13 for the Chicago Cubs

Today we’ll be continuing our breakdown of collegiate hitters that will be available in the MLB draft on July 9th. Last week we looked at two of the SEC’s best that likely won’t be there when the Cubs pick at number 13, but this week we’ll look at four guys that should go somewhere in Chicago’s range. 

Other writers may choose to write about high school bats or pitchers in either the college or high school ranks, but as I posited earlier this week, the safest and highest upside play in the first round over the last 20 years has been to draft the college hitter so that’s what I’m going to hone in on. 

Next week we’ll dive into potential underslot options that will almost assuredly be there for Chicago to consider and finally, the week prior to the draft, we’ll post a piece that has a smattering of the writers from Cubbies Crib weighing in on the pick they want to see the Cubs make. 

For now, here are four players that you might actually see the Cubs draft, and recent mock drafts agree. 

Kyle Teel C Virginia

Athletic: #6

Fangraphs: Outside of Top 40

MLB.com: #10

Drafting a catcher, college or otherwise, is always a risk. The defensive side of the position takes so much longer to learn and in order to stay at the position it requires constant scouting work with your pitchers in a way that no other position does. Having a catcher like Adley Rutschman who can hit for average and power as a switch hitter while also playing Gold Glove defense doesn’t come along all that often, and Kyle Teel didn’t appear to be that guy until this season. 

MLB.com says in their scouting report that he was more of a hit over power guy in high school and he’s struggled to try to be both in his time at Virginia. He had a rough sophomore year where he batted just .276/.402/.439. The power numbers weren’t enough to outweigh the struggles to put the bat on the ball consistently even if he did walk more often than he struck out. 

This year though, he’s hit .418/.484/.673 which mark career highs in all three categories as a junior. He’s hit more than twice as many homers and doubles as he did last year and he’s walking almost as often (31) as he’s striking out (33). Beyond that, most scouts really believe in his defensive skill set to be able to stick at the position but agree that he has the athleticism to play the outfield as well. 

Here’s what Keith Law had to say about him for the Athletic:

Behind the plate, he’s agile with a plus arm and receives well, needing some work on framing and handling pitches low in the zone, which he tends to catch by dropping the glove first before moving back up towards the bottom of the zone. I’ve compared his ceiling before to a left-handed-hitting Jason Kendall, a guy who puts the ball in play a ton, runs very well for a catcher, and is an asset on defense.

I don’t know that I love drafting a catcher when the window for this team is supposed to be wide open over the next couple of seasons and he’ll likely be a couple of years out as he learns not only to be a pro hitter, but also works on his receiving skills as well. However, if there were a guy worth taking that risk on, Teel may very well be him. 

Matt Shaw SS Maryland

Athletic: #7

Fangraphs: #23
MLB.com: #18

Matt Shaw is an interesting player. He can hit for contact and he can hit for power, so it’s the bat that will likely make him a first round pick. He’s hit over 50 home runs while in college with 46 of those coming in his sophomore and junior seasons. This year he walked more often (43) than he struck out (42) and he showed some speed and baserunning prowess by stealing 18-19 bases he attempted.

MLB.com points out in their scouting report that he’s turned a lot of heads due to his ability to hit with a wooden bat as well. While Kyle Teel struggled a little bit in the Cape Cod League, Shaw mashed. He put together a .360/.432/.574 slash line and came away as the MVP of the league. That kind of thing really matters to front offices and even if he can’t stick at shortstop long term the bat may be Major League ready by the end of the 2024 season. 

Keith Law of the Athletic had the Cubs taking Matt Shaw in a mock draft a couple of weeks ago. He referenced the current Front Office’s interest in advanced metrics and mentioned Shaw’s numbers:

Shaw is one of the best pure hitters in the draft class with metrics to match, something the Cubs are clearly aware of given their choice of Cade Horton with their first pick last year. 

Fangraphs has a good write up on him that compares his compact 5’11 frame to Dan Uggla, but also talks about some of his drawbacks. His arm may limit him to second base, which isn’t a massive problem as the Cubs still covet middle-of-the-diamond kinds of players. 

A couple of weeks ago I covered Matt Shaw as a potential fit for the Cubs at 13 and said this:

That being said, the thing that gives me a bit of concern is that they discussed his inability to cover the upper third of the plate which reminds me of a college bat that I was sure was the real deal. He put up stellar contact and power numbers and was drafted in the first round and now finds himself in AAA due to that same inability to catch up to the high fastball. I’m not saying Matt Shaw is Keston Hiura, I’m just saying that the profile of a player that can only cover ⅔ of the plate scares me a bit. 

Tommy Troy SS Stanford

Athletic: #12

Fangraphs: #25

MLB.com: #19

Keith Law listed another college shortstop as an option for the Cubs at 13. A couple of weeks ago I said that “This is going to be one of those annoying options over the next couple of weeks as the lazy player comp is… Nico Hoerner, another Stanford middle infielder that matches the description that Fangraphs had for him in their scouting report”

Troy is a twitchy little second baseman with a blend of power and contact that might make him an everyday player if his very aggressive approach doesn't get in the way.

Troy broke out in a pretty big way this year. His slash line of .395/.477/.708 saw him increase his batting average by nearly 50 points, his OBP by nearly 100 points and his slugging percentage by over 100. He also hit as many homers this year as he hit in his first two seasons combined so the power numbers are there and he also was 17-20 in his steal attempts so there’s some speed there also.

Keith Law said in his scouting report something that is antithetical to what the fear is with Matt Shaw and that is that he can do some damage on fastballs, regardless of their location.

He almost never misses a fastball, whiffing on only eight percent of them this spring (through the end of the regular season) even when he goes out of zone, and he clearly hunts those pitches, doing the vast majority of his damage there.

Finally MLB.com talked a little bit about his defensive profile and said that some teams can see him as a potential shortstop, but most see him as a solid second baseman with the athleticism to perhaps be able to be an asset in centerfield as well. 

Based on the numbers I don’t have a ton of problems with the approach, especially considering the improvements he’s made this season. He has fewer strikeouts than he’s ever had before and has walked nearly four times as often as he did last year. Approach matters, but guys like Javier Baez and Christopher Morel have done just fine in Cubbie Blue without much of an approach so I’m not too worried.