2023 MLB Draft: Four Guys That Should Be Available at 13 for the Chicago Cubs

Today we’ll be continuing our breakdown of collegiate hitters that will be available in the MLB draft on July 9th. Last week we looked at two of the SEC’s best that likely won’t be there when the Cubs pick at number 13, but this week we’ll look at four guys that should go somewhere in Chicago’s range. 

Other writers may choose to write about high school bats or pitchers in either the college or high school ranks, but as I posited earlier this week, the safest and highest upside play in the first round over the last 20 years has been to draft the college hitter so that’s what I’m going to hone in on. 

Next week we’ll dive into potential underslot options that will almost assuredly be there for Chicago to consider and finally, the week prior to the draft, we’ll post a piece that has a smattering of the writers from Cubbies Crib weighing in on the pick they want to see the Cubs make. 

For now, here are four players that you might actually see the Cubs draft, and recent mock drafts agree. 

Matt Shaw SS Maryland

Athletic: #7

Fangraphs: #23
MLB.com: #18

Matt Shaw is an interesting player. He can hit for contact and he can hit for power, so it’s the bat that will likely make him a first round pick. He’s hit over 50 home runs while in college with 46 of those coming in his sophomore and junior seasons. This year he walked more often (43) than he struck out (42) and he showed some speed and baserunning prowess by stealing 18-19 bases he attempted.

MLB.com points out in their scouting report that he’s turned a lot of heads due to his ability to hit with a wooden bat as well. While Kyle Teel struggled a little bit in the Cape Cod League, Shaw mashed. He put together a .360/.432/.574 slash line and came away as the MVP of the league. That kind of thing really matters to front offices and even if he can’t stick at shortstop long term the bat may be Major League ready by the end of the 2024 season. 

Keith Law of the Athletic had the Cubs taking Matt Shaw in a mock draft a couple of weeks ago. He referenced the current Front Office’s interest in advanced metrics and mentioned Shaw’s numbers:

Shaw is one of the best pure hitters in the draft class with metrics to match, something the Cubs are clearly aware of given their choice of Cade Horton with their first pick last year. 

Fangraphs has a good write up on him that compares his compact 5’11 frame to Dan Uggla, but also talks about some of his drawbacks. His arm may limit him to second base, which isn’t a massive problem as the Cubs still covet middle-of-the-diamond kinds of players. 

A couple of weeks ago I covered Matt Shaw as a potential fit for the Cubs at 13 and said this:

That being said, the thing that gives me a bit of concern is that they discussed his inability to cover the upper third of the plate which reminds me of a college bat that I was sure was the real deal. He put up stellar contact and power numbers and was drafted in the first round and now finds himself in AAA due to that same inability to catch up to the high fastball. I’m not saying Matt Shaw is Keston Hiura, I’m just saying that the profile of a player that can only cover ⅔ of the plate scares me a bit. 

Tommy Troy SS Stanford

Athletic: #12

Fangraphs: #25

MLB.com: #19

Keith Law listed another college shortstop as an option for the Cubs at 13. A couple of weeks ago I said that “This is going to be one of those annoying options over the next couple of weeks as the lazy player comp is… Nico Hoerner, another Stanford middle infielder that matches the description that Fangraphs had for him in their scouting report”

Troy is a twitchy little second baseman with a blend of power and contact that might make him an everyday player if his very aggressive approach doesn't get in the way.

Troy broke out in a pretty big way this year. His slash line of .395/.477/.708 saw him increase his batting average by nearly 50 points, his OBP by nearly 100 points and his slugging percentage by over 100. He also hit as many homers this year as he hit in his first two seasons combined so the power numbers are there and he also was 17-20 in his steal attempts so there’s some speed there also.

Keith Law said in his scouting report something that is antithetical to what the fear is with Matt Shaw and that is that he can do some damage on fastballs, regardless of their location.

He almost never misses a fastball, whiffing on only eight percent of them this spring (through the end of the regular season) even when he goes out of zone, and he clearly hunts those pitches, doing the vast majority of his damage there.

Finally MLB.com talked a little bit about his defensive profile and said that some teams can see him as a potential shortstop, but most see him as a solid second baseman with the athleticism to perhaps be able to be an asset in centerfield as well. 

Based on the numbers I don’t have a ton of problems with the approach, especially considering the improvements he’s made this season. He has fewer strikeouts than he’s ever had before and has walked nearly four times as often as he did last year. Approach matters, but guys like Javier Baez and Christopher Morel have done just fine in Cubbie Blue without much of an approach so I’m not too worried. 

Enrique Bradfield Jr. OF Vanderbilt

Athletic: #11

Fangraphs: #15

MLB.com: #16

This is the last player that Keith Law threw out as an option for the Cubs at 13 in his first mock draft. Fangraphs has him as their 15th best player in the draft. Ironically though, they don’t project him to be an everyday player due to a lack of offensive power.

That being said, there was a lot to like about Bradfield’s game. Fangraphs scouting report compares him to Juan Pierre but with a better approach at the plate due to his elite speed and ability to spray singles to all fields. 

If you could bottle his sophomore season or even his freshman season he’d likely be a top-ten pick, and he might still be. His freshman season he was all hit and no power, with a .335/.450/.412 slash line. He stole an incredible 47 bases but was caught six times and he only hit one home run. 

His sophomore year he was a better version of himself even if his slash line was less impressive at .317/.415/.498. He hit eight homers as a sophomore and he “only” stole 46 bases but more importantly he was only caught once. 

This year he’s been worse across the board. He carried a .275/.406/.425 slash line with fewer home runs, triples and stolen bases than his sophomore season and was caught stealing seven times this year while stealing 37 bases. That being said, the rough junior season is probably the only way that he would be available to fall to the Cubs at 13, because if he’d continued to produce at the level he had been he could’ve gone as high as top-five. 

Something I said a couple of weeks ago was:

Prior to Nico Hoerner this season the Cubs had not been able to develop a true leadoff hitter since Dexter Fowler left for the Cardinals. As Joe always said: “you go, we go.” That wasn’t specific to Fowler, that’s true of any leadoff hitter. The difference between having a guy that can get on base and stay in a pitcher’s head on the basepaths, and not having that guy is massive, and Bradfield was able to do that against the best competition in the country in the SEC.

Any of the four of these guys would be a great pick. The offensive-minded catcher with the athleticism to make a move to the outfield if the glove lags behind the bat in terms of development, either of the offensive-minded middle infielders with a history of success on the Cape with wooden bats, or the leadoff hitting center fielder with legitimate 80-grade speed, there’s not a bad option. The Cubs may need some help for one of these guys to still be available at 13, but if any/all of them are, they’d be solid additions that could help the Major League squad in this window of contention.

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