2 truths and 1 lie about the 2023 Chicago Cubs season so far

Nine games into the 2023 Chicago Cubs season, there's already plenty to talk about this group of Northsiders as they look to prove the doubters wrong. The rebuilt roster has struggled a bit in its first few series, but they've still managed to stay above .500 thanks to some impressive wins against the Rangers and Mariners. Fans have gotten a glimpse at both sides of the coin - what a typical Cubs win will look like this year and how the majority of their losses will happen.

There's a lot of truth to how evaluators appraised this team before the season began. There's room to improve and the Cubs are still reliant on more than a few things to go right for them to contend. That said, this team has some more impressive aspects going for them that might be missed without watching them every day or diving into the underlying numbers. Let's take a look at two truths and a lie concerning the 2023 Cubs.

Truth #1: The Cubs offense desperately needs a star or two

On the surface, the Cubs don't look terrible offensively to start the year. They lack power, for sure, with Patrick Wisdom proving to be their only consistent source of slugging right now, but they've managed to pile up some decent offensive performances in the early going and they have a +8 run differential. Not to mention, Dansby Swanson and Ian Happ, among others, are off to a scorching hot start at the plate.

Look under the hood, however, and there are major red flags indicating that things should be worse than they are. For one, they only have a 94 wRC+ as a team, putting them 19th overall in all of baseball. It may be early in the season, but they currently have a barrel rate way below the league average at only 5.1% compared to 8.6%. They've also made more weak contact and less solid contact than average with a 48.7% ground ball rate compared to the 43.7% league mark.

Notably, their .332 BABIP is also a bit high, suggesting there's a bit of luck involved in some of the hits they have gotten. While they do have some guys underperforming their expected numbers like Miles Mastrobuoni and, shockingly, Swanson, there's also Eric Hosmer, Happ, and Wisdom who, by xBA, xSLG, and xWOBA, are vastly overperforming what peripherals suggest.

The truth is, they still are lacking a thumper or two in the lineup. It also doesn't help that they have several struggling hitters among their ranks including offseason acquisition Trey Mancini. Unless they can get a big Seiya Suzuki, Cody Bellinger, or prospect breakout this year, the other shoe is going to drop at some point. This is an offense with a lot of warts

Lie: The Cubs rotation needed another free agent arm to be successful

It's admittedly frustrating that the Cubs didn't come away from the 2022-23 offseason with a new ace of the club like Carlos Rodon or even Kodai Senga in tow. There's no doubt a high-level arm would've lengthened this rotation considerably, turning it into one of the better groups in the game. However, I still believe they have the talent to hang with some of the league's better lineups.

Marcus Stroman and Justin Steele are the stars of the show so far, sporting a perfect 0 and near-perfect 0.75 ERA respectively across their first two starts. That is way too early to come to any definitive conclusions, but they largely track with what the two were able to do throughout the back half of last year. Both pitchers only seemed to get better as the year went on with Steele, in particular, sporting one of baseball's best fastballs by spin rate and dominating batters with a well above-average barrel rate. This year, neither pitcher has been barreled yet.

In fact, this rotation as a whole has been good so far at limiting barrels, even if the numbers don't necessarily show it. Jameson Taillon, for example, struggled in his first two outings, but there's evidence he hasn't pitched nearly as badly as it seems. His xwOBA of .273 is considerably better than the average of .326 as is his hard-hit rate. That passes the eye test, especially when looking at his start against the Rangers. He still racked up seven strikeouts in that start with strong control only to be burned by questionable defense and some crummy hits. It would not be surprising to see him get better results as the season drags on.

I expect this rotation will surprise the league with how effective it is at limiting some really good offenses even without a dominant ace. Early on, the Cubs pitchers have shown an ability to miss bats or, at the very least, induce BAD contact on a consistent basis. That's without mentioning the potential of Hayden Wesneski to breakout or any other arms to come up and perform from the minors.