2 different contract structures to get the Cubs to sign Cody Bellinger

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After the Chicago Cubs signed Hector Neris to a one-year, $9MM deal with an option for 2025; it happened to put the Cubs in an excellent position to sign another key slugger this winter. Spotrac has the Cubs at $204.7MM heading into 2024, or just over $32MM under the first luxury tax tier. Cody Bellinger now becomes a perfect fit both for the team's needs and for the team financially.

Jed Hoyer has set this team up perfectly so that if they land Bellinger, they will only have to worry about going over the luxury tax at the trade deadline if they are competing. Depending on the player they take on at the deadline, they might even need to do that depending on what Bellinger's AAV looks like in year one.

Ian Happ, Nico Hoerner, and Seiya Suzuki will reach free agency the same year after the 2026 season, which equates to 50.0M between just three players. Intelligent spending is an ideal way to keep your financial flexibility open long-term, but the Cubs already have plenty of it. That said, here are two contract structures the team can afford to reacquire Bellinger this winter.

2 different contract structures - Seven years/175.0M

A straight-up deal like this is always an option, but this version is less likely. It could still make sense to structure a deal this way, but my guy tells me the Cubs will land Bellinger on a more complicated deal, such as they did Shota Imanaga. Still, let's understand why a deal such as this isn't necessarily the worst thing that could happen either.

Let’s take a moment to compare Dansby Swanson to Cody Bellinger. In 2022, during Swanson’s contract year, he put up career highs offensively and defensively. We knew that if Swanson regressed offensively in 2023 (which he did), he would still be an elite defender and have an overall high enough floor to justify any dips in offensive production.

$200+ million for Bellinger is still too high, just as it would have been for Swanson. But seven years at 25 per is easier to stomach. It’s a straight-up contract that some years will pay off and some probably won’t. To avoid financial burden later, make the first few years a higher AAV. Given that the team only has an estimated 125M heading into 2025 (before arbitration figures) on the books, the Cubs are financially wide open starting in a few years for this to be a severe issue.

We keep talking about Bellinger's batted ball metric projections and fail to realize that even if he drops back to something like Swanson did offensively for the Cubs in ‘23, he’s still an above-average player who can fill holes for you defensively. The same metrics experts consistently refer to as worrisome also had no idea Bellinger would do what he did last season, so put as much stock into that as you wish. Batting .307 with 26 HRs and 97 RBIs isn't the result of just good luck.

2 different contract structures - Seven years/180.0M w/ options and escalators

The second, more likely contract structure, given that the Cubs will have to get creative is a front-loaded deal that carries incentives later in the contract to pay Bellinger more if he still performs well. Consider the first four years to have an AAV of $27MM; the final three years are around $24MM. However, adding a player option after the second season to give him a chance to test free agency in his prime while throwing in a club option for a 5th year gives both parties the option not to get stuck into something long-term.

Of course, guaranteeing only two years of Bellinger when the team wants to compete will be an issue when the time comes. In fact, it will be worse than it is now, given Scott Boras will have more proof that his fantastic client is legit. On the other hand, it at least gives the Cubs a competitive edge for the next two seasons. Still, Bellinger's best two years may be his next two years, and opting out of his own deal can save the Cubs down the road.

The point is that you worry about the future in the future. If you can win now, the team needs to make it happen however they can. This type of deal gets Bellinger paid, whether he does good or bad, and one Hoyer can feel it is not the end of the world for only five years if he underperforms. Any player wants a long-term deal fully guaranteed, but the fact that Bellinger is still a free agent tells you if he were going to receive that, he would have by now. An option-filled deal with escalators is the most likely outcome at this point.

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