2 Cubs ranked too high in fantasy baseball drafts, and 3 ranked too low
3 Cubs being drafted too low - 1. Hayden Wesneski
Luckily for Cubs fans, they don't live under a rock like the rest of the world seems to be approaching Hayden Wesneski, especially from a fantasy perspective. You know what I'm talking about if you've seen the man pitch. Where Wesneski currently has the 5th spot in the rotation on lock, arguments can be made that the 5th spot is too low, as he's impressed just as much as anyone in spring training. From the fantasy side, he is still being drafted with an ADP of 296, or not at all, unless you're in extremely deep leagues.
Last season, Wesneski put up 90 points in 33 innings of work. After recording a 2.18 ERA last year, ESPN is projecting him for a 4.30 ERA in 2023, nearly twice as high, with zero reasons to be doing so. For every argument you can make against Wesneski that 2022 was too small of a sample size to know that he will be that good, you can use the same idea to say there's no reason to believe he'll be any worse, either. In 2022, Wesneski pitched 144.1 innings between the minor and major leagues, so if his fantasy production is anywhere close to 90 points in 33 innings, simple math tells you that he was on pace for putting up closer to 400 points on the year.
To project him now for only 207 points is a big mistake on ESPN's part. He doesn't have to have a 2.18, either. Even regressing to a 3.30-3.50 ERA, with an entire season of work, puts him up around 300 points, depending on his number of strikeouts. For someone going undrafted, take advantage while you can because he will be scooped up on waivers or free agency the moment he has his first good game. If he is the 5th starter, that means he will be facing the Cincinnati Reds in his first start, a team that lost 100 games last year and have no reason to be good this season. Sleeper of the year candidate.