2 Cubs ranked too high in fantasy baseball drafts, and 3 ranked too low

For the avid Fantasy Baseball fan, we've compiled a list of players on the Chicago Cubs regarding their current projections, average draft pick (ADP), and if they are being picked too soon or too late in the draft. We will review leagues with a basic head-to-head points-scoring system based on ten-man teams to make things easier. Let's dive right in, starting with two Cubs being drafted too high.

2 Cubs being drafted too high - 2. Seiya Suzuki

If you're loading up on Chicago Cubs because you are a Cubs fan, think twice and cautiously. Cubs slugger, Seiya Suzuki, is still being drafted on average around the 13th round, even with the news that he will likely miss at least the season's first month. Last season, Suzuki put up 213 points for point systems in 111 games.

Suppose Suzuki misses all of April and returns at least May 1st. In that case, he's already going to miss the first 28 games of the Cubs' regular season, putting him on pace to play in just 134 contests this season, and that's assuming he stays healthy and plays every day the rest of the way. With average days off, you're around 125 games for Suzuki in 2023, just 14 more than in 2022.

So, you should not be banking on his projection of 289 points this season. In drafts, there is nothing wrong with taking him if you can get him in the later rounds and stash him on the IL. In the meantime, if someone wants to take him in the first 13 rounds, let them waste a draft pick. Fade unless you can get him after you've solidified every position and starting rotation to that point. Guys scoring about 250 points this season are a dime a dozen; don't waste an early draft pick on someone that will be on the IL for the first month.

2 Cubs being drafted too high - 1. Cody Bellinger

After only posting 236 points in standard points leagues last year, Cody Bellinger is currently being drafted around the 179th overall. I still list him as too high because we have no concrete reason to believe he will bounce back in 2023. The hope is that he will return to form, and if he does, yes, we love Bellinger in fantasy this season. The problem is that he is already two years removed from real fantasy relevance.

More is needed to move the needle on your team if he puts up his projected 269 points this year. There is, unfortunately, more risk than reward to this point. If you'd like to take a flyer on him, you can do it. The point I'm making is that if you're looking to build a decent floor for your team, other available players at that point should be fine reaching that mark that doesn't pose any risk. I'd like to see what Cody can do, and I'm targeting him as a bench player because I want him just in case. However, I'm only wasting a pick on him if he's available in about the 20th round. The best advice, buy low and trade for him after the draft. If he doesn't work out after a month or two, reevaluate.

The type of trade it should take to pull off for Bellinger is the tier of player available in free agency. For example, a two-for-one trade for Bellinger is the best way. Take a bench bat and pitcher projected a little lower than Bellinger and offer it up, which will appear as a steal for the receiving team, then go to free agency and pick up another pitcher projected around the same points as the one you just gave up. Overall, you wind up boosting your team's projected points.

3 Cubs being drafted too low - 3. Ian Happ

Ian Happ's current ADP of 164 is only a round or two before Bellinger, depending on which type of league you're in. If you agree that Bellinger is a risky play, then you understand why projecting Happ anywhere near him is disrespectful. Last season, Happ broke out and put up 314 points on the season. Currently, he is being projected for 298, which is fair due to the lack of home runs we saw from him last season.

Still, Happ took the high-contact approach last season and raised his batting average to a career-high .271, and it isn't far-fetched to assume that after doing so, he will try to tie it all together and slug a few more homers on a contract year this season. If he does, while keeping the strikeouts to a minimum, he will blow past what he did offensively last season. In fantasy, where home runs are king, if Happ turns a few of last year's singles into bombs, then 164 overall will be a steal for anybody who gets him that late.

Target Ian Happ in matchups against sinker ballers and pitchers that throw cutters. Last Season, Happ recorded slash lines of .338/.380/.477 with a .407 BABIP and an average exit velocity of 94.3 MPH against sinkers and .485/.585/.697 with a .533 BABIP and .212 ISO against cutters. These are also decent sample sizes, with 303 sinkers and 213 cutters seen in the batter's box last season.

3 Cubs being drafted too low - 2. Trey Mancini

Tying back into Suzuki's injury, Trey Mancini should find near-everyday playing time in 2023, primarily to begin the season. Mancini currently has an ADP of 264, the 26th round in ten-man leagues, and in many leagues, that will mean he goes undrafted. Due to a poor second half of 2022, Mancini wound up with just 240 points last year, and ESPN is disrespectfully projecting him for an even lower 220 this season.

There's a good chance that Mancini will be playing right field throughout the first month of the season, followed by 1B/DH duties the rest of the way. In Spring Training, he is batting .400 in 35 ABs and has a 1.047 OPS. If his spring showing is anywhere close to an indication of what he's capable of doing with everyday playing time in 2023, then 220 points is a laughably bad projection. It would be best if you didn't draft him too high simply because he is a sleeper and going unnoticed right now.

You can take him late, and feel free to plug him into your utility spot to begin the year. Side tip: Make sure you start him against pitchers that utilize a fastball as a primary pitch that they throw with a high percentage. Last season, Mancini recorded a line of .279/.398/.503 with an OPS of .901, including a .224 ISO on four-seamers.