It's crystal clear the National League MVP debate is down to Pete Crow-Armstrong or Shohei Ohtani. On one hand, Ohtani has become a shoo-in for the award, considering he's arguably been the game's best hitter and is near the top of the conversation among starting pitchers. But with Ohtani having only made 14 starts for the Los Angeles Dodgers this season, it feels like the Chicago Cubs' center fielder should be the favorite.
The offensive numbers between Crow-Armstrong and Ohtani are nearly identical, with the only biggest difference being that the former has 31 stolen bases. Ohtani, because of the value he provides elsewhere, has been limited to seven.
For this year, specifically, the difference will likely come down to Crow-Armstrong's value as fielder against Ohtani's as a pitcher. As a pitcher, Ohtani sports a 3.0 fWAR. There's not a defined WAR metric for defense, but Crow-Armstrong is second in the majors in outs above average with 23, and but tops in statcast's value on defense.
While there's a debate between Bobby Witt Jr. and Crow-Armstrong in terms of who is the best fielder in all of baseball, it's clear that Crow-Armstrong is the best defensive center fielder in baseball.
Which does circle back to fWAR. Ohtani's total fWAR on the season is 7.0, combining both his hitting and pitching ability this season. Crow-Armstrong's fWAR is currently 8.3, factoring in his offense and how FanGraphs chooses to value defense. For reference, there's a similar gap with Baseball Reference. Crow-Armstrong has a bWAR of 7.8, and Ohtani is at 6.8.
WAR, in itself, is a debated metric. It's often used improperly, and there are examples where it relies too heavily on defense. This isn't one of those times. For the purpose of distinguishing between Crow-Armstrong and Ohtani in the MVP debate, it's important context.
Shohei Ohtani might be a unicorn, but this season. Pete Crow-Armstrong is the MVP.
This season, Crow-Armstrong has been the best player in baseball. The problem, and one that Chicago White Sox catcher Drew Romo relied on, is that Ohtani widely believed to be the best player that has ever played this game, and some are just going to hand him the MVP award because of that fact.
"He's the most valuable," Romo told ESPN's Jesse Rogers. "He's maybe the greatest player of all time, and I know the MVP is a 'this year' award, but I just think Ohtani is the greatest. That first half on the mound was enough for me."
The MVP award is not a lifetime acheivement award. It's award designed to reward the best player during a specific season. For this specific season, Crow-Armstrong isn't just better than Ohtani, he's lapping him in the race. End of story.
