Orioles’ wild Shane Baz trade may have killed key part of Cubs’ offseason plan

The Chicago Cubs likely paid close attention to the Baltimore Orioles' trade for Tampa Bay Rays' starting pitcher Shane Baz. The Orioles, being a team in need of a starting pitcher and instead of turning to the free-agent market, found a cost-controlled option on the trade market. The concern for Chicago is that Baltimore paid a massive price in doing so.

The Orioles sent prospects Slater De Brun, Caden Bodine, Michael Forret, and Austin Overn to the Rays, while also kicking in a Competitive Balance Round A pick for good measure. Organizationally, that is two top-10 prospects, one top-20 prospect, and a top-30 prospect for a pitcher in Baz who arrives with multiple years of control but is far from a finished product.

A trade for a cost-controlled starting pitcher likely can be ruled out for the Cubs' offseason.

Baz has a career ERA of 4.25 in 54 starts, and while 2025 was the first year he made over 25 starts in a season, he posted an ERA of 4.87. The benefit for the Orioles is that he is under control through 2028, and if he does figure it out, he could be an affordable option at the top of their rotation. But if that was the price for Baz, the already astronomical prices for MacKenzie Gore and MacKenzie Gore likely just soared even higher.

In other words, don't expect the Cubs to be making a trade for a cost-controlled starting pitcher this offseason. Considering they balked at the asking prices from the Washington Nationals and Miami Marlins at the trade deadline, that likely will be the case once again now that Baz's trade has reset the price for controllable starting pitchers.

And, if you're the Cubs, on the trade market, your sights should be set on Gore or Edwards. Taking a gamble on a pitcher like Baz--talented but needs developing--wouldn't match the timeline of a team making this move to improve their playoff chances in 2026.

With Michael King now off the free-agent market, options are suddenly becoming scarce for the Cubs as they look for a way to address their need in the rotation. It would seem that signing one of Tatsuya Imai or Zac Gallen will be the outcome, and if it's Imai, that certainly would change the narrative that has surrounded the team in recent weeks.

If the Cubs miss on those efforts as well, that likely wouldn't spell good things for the rest of the offseason.