Only one offseason scenario ends with Cubs signing a big-name free agent

It has proved to be a tiring exercise in recent years trying to predict whether the Chicago Cubs will land a top free agent. The Cubs haven't been shy about their preference to avoid the top of the market, and while they have money available this offseason, it feels like the overall approach of the front office will remain the same. If the Cubs were to land a top free agent this offseason, it would likely be due to that player's market bottoming out or stalling.

It was the reason why the Cubs were able to re-sign Cody Bellinger during spring training in 2024, and it was the incentive for their push for Alex Bregman last spring. In mapping out his prediction for Framber Valdez's free agency, CBS Sports' Mike Axisa makes the case for the Cubs.

"So, I'll put him down for the Cubs, who walked away from Shota Imanaga and have a pretty big hole in the rotation with Justin Steele still rehabbing from elbow surgery. I think Valdez is the free agent most likely to sign with a Mystery Team in January or February."

Only way the Cubs make sense for Framber Valdez would be if his market stalls, leading to a spring training deal.

Valdez has the impression of being the top free-agent starting pitcher on the market, but there are some red flags. The biggest being his controversial cross-up incident with teammate Cesar Salazar. The incident shone a spotlight on the idea that Valdez may not have been an ideal clubhouse presence during his time in Houston. Valdez also struggled to close out the 2025 season, posting an ERA of 5.20 in his final 71 innings pitched.

Throwing in the reality of Valdez turning 32 before Opening Day and having a qualifying offer attached, it's clear to see why the Cubs won't race out to sign him this offseason.

Even with the red flags, Valdez has been a model of consistency during his time in Houston. Posting an ERA of 3.36 across 8 seasons while going over 175 innings pitched in each of the last 4 seasons, it's easy to see why teams circle his name as a top-of-the-rotation answer.

When looking at other free agents such as Dylan Cease, Ranger Suarez, and Michael King, it would seem that Valdez has the biggest chance of not signing until the early months of 2026. That is where the Cubs thrive, or at least attempt to. Short of that happening for the former Astros pitcher, chances are Valdez isn't the primary target for the Cubs' rotation need.