One scary offensive trend the Chicago Cubs must consider in Alex Bregman pursuit

Since the Houston Astros' cheating scandal was exposed in November 2019, Alex Bregman has been a consistently productive offensive player. Bregman's batting average has been between .260 and .270 in four of the five seasons since. In four of the five seasons, his slugging percentage (SLG) has been between .441 and .453. And in four of the five seasons, his on-base percentage has been between .350 and .366. Unfortunately, the outlier OBP was in 2024 at .315. Bregman's walk rate plummeted to 6.9% from 12.7% in 2023. For reference, his seasonal rate has been between 11% and 13.3% this decade.

What does this meangoing forward?

If Bregman was being more aggressive early in the count, one might expect that his strikeout rate would decrease as well. That rate was up slightly from the previous year but within his career range. One might also expect a significant increase in his slugging percentage as a reward for increased aggressiveness. But as we saw above, his .453 was right in line with his recent results. The way to read this is that pitchers were challenging him with more strikes and Bregman was not able to increase his offensive damage at all.

For all those desirous of signing Bregman there is an historical cautionary tale. Willie Mays had a very productive age 39 season in 1970. Suddenly, in 1971, both his walk and strikeout rates exploded. It was obvious that the 40-year-old could no longer handle the high fastball and pitchers around the league took notice. His post-All Star break average was .241 and he was reduced to a part-time role in his final two seasons. I am not comparing the natural decline of a 40-year-old with one season of a (soon-to-be) 31-year-old. But if pitchers around the league are changing the way they attack Bregman, he is going to have to make an adjustment as well.

Reason for hope if the Cubs sign Alex Bregman.

There are some bright spots which could alleviate our concerns. When Bregman swung at the first pitch, which he did 28% of the time, the at-bats produced a collective .198/.217/.384 slash line. In 2023, Bregman swung at the first pitch 23% of the time to the tune of .333/.352/.579. This may be actual evidence of the way pitchers changed their approach. Bregman's post-All-Star break SLG was over 100 points higher than it was before the break. This could be evidence of Bregman's successful adjustment process. It is also possible that in a new league the pitchers might have to tackle a learning curve in attacking Bregman. And as far as the belief that he has taken inordinate advantage of his home park; his career OPS is nearly identical at home and on the road. The third baseman's slugging percentage has actually been higher away from Houston.

Bregman won a Gold Glove last season and by the metrics, remains an above-average third baseman. His signing might add predictability to the lineup by eliminating the need to install a rookie at third base. However, if signing Bregman requires a trade of Nico Hoerner, I am not sure the starting lineup is a cinch to be improved.