The Chicago Cubs made the decision to promote top prospect Matt Shaw to begin the season, with Shaw making his debut as the Cubs’ starting third baseman for the Tokyo Series in Japan. Was it the right decision? With the benefit of hindsight, probably not. However, the lack of a concrete plan to address the position in the offseason left them no other choice.
Shaw’s Major League has not gotten off to the start the Cubs had hoped. Across 18 games, Shaw batted just .172, never looking quite comfortable at the plate. His ten walks were amongst the highest on the team at the time, but his OPS+ of 56 made it difficult to advocate for his place in the lineup.
To make matters worse, Shaw did not do much for himself on the defensive side of the diamond either, making three costly errors in his spell with the Cubs. The Cubs had clearly seen enough, and demoted him to the Triple-A Iowa Cubs on April 15.
Now, Shaw is knocking on the door of promotion once again.
In 20 games with Iowa, Shaw has shown great strides and has started to look like the prospect we thought he could be again. Shaw is now batting .284 with an insane on-base percentage of .408, led by his 15 walks on the campaign.
He’s hit four home runs in his stint in Iowa, with two of them coming in Iowa’s 8-7 win Thursday evening over the St. Paul Saints, including the walk-off winner in the eighth inning
MATT SHAW!!!!!!!
— Iowa Cubs (@IowaCubs) May 15, 2025
Matt Shaw walks it off in the bottom of the 8th to sweep the double header!#iowacubs #onlyindesmoines #IOWAAA #milb #baseball pic.twitter.com/DKKKvKGtne
Looking at the advanced stats, clear improvements can be seen. Shaw’s average exit velocity in AAA sits at 87.6 MPH, still well below the MLB league average of 89.5 MPH, but a steady improvement over his 82.7 MPH average with the Big-League club.
Shaw’s hard-hit percentage is up massively as well, sitting at an even 40 percent, as opposed to his 22.5 percent with Chicago.
Of course, this one other factor may hasten the Cubs’ decision when it comes to Shaw’s next destination.
The Cubs really don’t have a better option at the moment.
The Cubs boast one of the worst third base tandems in all of Major League Baseball, accounting for -0.8 wins above replacement, the 26th worst total in all of MLB. While Shaw was far from the star the Cubs had hoped, the rotating wheel of Jon Berti, Nicky Lopez, Gage Workman, and Justin Turner has failed to serve as adequate replacements in Shaw’s absence.
At this point, it would make the most sense for Shaw to return to the Major League club as soon as possible. His reset in the minors seems to have helped him regain confidence, and it would present a great opportunity for Shaw to work through his struggles in a Major League setting instead of in the minors.
Should he struggle again, it wouldn't make much of a difference, as things can't get much worse than they already are for the Cubs at third base.
