MLB qualifying offer increase will have a major impact on Chicago Cubs offseason

Of the Chicago Cubs players who will become free agents next month, the Cubs will not use Major League Baseball's qualifying offer on any of them.

On Thursday, ESPN reported that Major League Baseball's qualifying offer for impending free agents has increased to $21.05MM, a slight rise from the $20.325MM mark it was at last offseason.

Kyle Hendricks, Jorge López, David Bote, and Drew Smyly are not players that will come close to earning $21.05MM next season. Cody Bellinger, who has a $27.5MM player option for the 2025 season, is not eligible to receive the qualifying offer this offseason as he has received one in the past.

While the Cubs are not expected to use the qualifying offer this offseason, it will have an impact on their offseason. Potential free-agent targets such as Corbin Burnes, Anthony Santander, Alex Bregman, Max Fried, and Pete Alonso are all eligible to receive a qualifying offer from their respective teams this offseason.

Major League Baseball has increased the qualifying offer.

This is also where we must circle back to the accounting error that has seemingly happened with the Cubs' 2024 payroll obligations. Despite actions at the time that suggested otherwise, the Cubs are expected to be over the luxury tax. For a team over the luxury that signs a free agent attached to a qualifying offer, the result is a loss of two future draft picks in addition to their International Free Agency spending pool being reduced by $1MM.

Even with the penalties involved, the Cubs aren't going to shy away from signing a player who is attached to a qualifying offer. But this is yet another sign that would seem to indicate the front office will be cautious with their spending this offseason. The idea of the Cubs signing multiple players who have qualifying offers attached to them isn't a realistic expectation for a front office that has stressed the importance of flexibility.