MLB insider picks Cubs to win the Central; but it comes with a major caveat

In his end-of-offseason MLB report card for all 30 teams, Jim Bowden of The Athletic (subscription required) handed out six A's, 12 B's, eight C's, three D's and one F (which, funnily enough didn't go to the Chicago White Sox, but rather the St. Louis Cardinals' bungled winter) - one of the teams that received an A? The Chicago Cubs.

Bowden pegs the Cubs as the favorites to win the National League Central - something they haven't done in a full 162-game season since 2017. He loved the front office's pick-ups of former All-Star closer Ryan Pressly and five-tool outfielder Kyle Tucker, but offered a warning on the latter, saying that if Chicago misses the postseason and fails to re-sign him, it will be a worst-case scenario for Jed Hoyer.

Projections view the Cubs as somewhere between an 85 and 90-win team, and for them to push the high end of that scale and really establish themselves as one of the National League's premier teams, they'll need the bottom of the projected batting order to play a key role in rookie Matt Shaw, center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong and backstop Miguel Amaya.

For much of the first half last year, the bottom of the order was a black hole, offering little production and handcuffing the team's ability to manufacture rallies and hang crooked numbers. That has to change if the Cubs want to re-gain control of the division and knock the rival Milwaukee Brewers off the top of the mountain.

Crow-Armstrong put together a wildly impressive run to close out the 2024 season, performing like one of the best players in all of baseball - but that surge wasn't enough to pull his offensive value into the positive given the scope of his early-season struggles. If he can be that player, or even a league-average bat, over the course of a full season, he could be one of the team's most valuable pieces.

It was a similar story with Amaya, who was horrendous at the dish in the early going before getting things going in the summer months. The good news now, though, is that there's a safety net beneath him in the from of veteran catcher Carson Kelly, who signed a two-year deal with the team this winter. If Amaya struggles, Craig Counsell has indicated he has no problem playing the hot hand and prioritizing Kelly (or vice versa).

Shaw could be the X-factor in all of this. The team hasn't received regular production at third base in years and if he lives up to his Rookie of the Year potential, this lineup could reach new heights.

With a revamped bullpen and bench, the Cubs raised their floor this offseason. The question now is just how high can they push their ceiling behind their new superstar outfielder and a trio of critical pieces at the bottom of the order.