Matt Shaw among the Chicago Cubs prospects who will define the team's 2025 success

Chicago Cubs fans may not want to hear this, but the messaging surrounding the Cubs' offseason suggests that the team's 2025 success will be determined by how quickly its top prospects succeed at the Major League level.

The Cubs, fueled by an eventual trade of Cody Bellinger, appear to be headed toward a payroll reduction in 2025 while having the stated mission from chairman Tom Ricketts that now is the time for the team to return to "championship-caliber" baseball.

The issue is that the Cubs' model for "championship-caliber" baseball does not match the model across Major League Baseball. While teams ready to contend for the World Series are trying to find a way to fit Juan Soto into their 2025 budget and beyond, the Cubs haven't shied away from making it clear that Soto won't be hitting home runs for the team at Wrigley Field next summer.

Instead, the one area that Hoyer deserved credit for building up, the team's farm system, will be what determines the level of success they have at the Major League level in 2025.

Success that will directly be tied to these three prospects.

1. Matt Shaw

Cubs' top prospect Matt Shaw was a standout play for Team USA during the WBSC Premier 12 tournament this fall. While Shaw has developed as a third baseman during his ascension through the Cubs' farm system, he could make his debut for the team as their Opening Day second baseman. Nico Hoerner's status with the Cubs remains uncertain given his recovery from offseason surgery and inclusion in recent trade rumors.

2. Owen Caissie

Beyond wanting to trade Bellinger as a way to clear some money from their general ledger, the move is also likely a priority for the Cubs' front office in order to create an opening for Owen Caissie at the Major League level. Caissie has the profile to be the left-handed power bat that the Cubs have desperately needed since the trade of Anthony Rizzo in 2021.

3. Moisés Ballesteros

Moisés Ballesteros' long-term outlook as a starting catcher at the Major League level remains an idea that the Cubs aren't sold on but his bat is what made him fly through each level of the Cubs' organization. Ballesteros finished the 2024 season with Triple-A and seems on track to have a similar path to one Kyle Schwarber had when he made his debut with the Cubs in 2015--his bat forcing him into the lineup, even if it is as the team's designated hitter.