The theme of Jed Hoyer's front office since he took over the Chicago Cubs baseball operations from Theo Epstein following the 2020 season was to "outperform their projections".
It was a theme that didn't carry much weight in 2021 and 2022. Hoyer used his first two seasons to conduct a quasi-rebuild, tearing down the core that won the World Series in 2016.
It was in 2023 and 2024 that Hoyer began to double down on the idea that the Cubs needed to be better than what they were projected to do. It's an odd mantra to have. Projections are often based on data compiled over several seasons from the players the Cubs have on their roster and to expect the future performance to deviate from a proven trend often is an easy way to create failure.
Craig Counsell's arrival as manager seems to be challenging Hoyer's philosophy. Toward the end of his first year as Cubs' manager last season, Counsell was adamant that the team needed to close the gap between being a fringe 80-win team and being a team capable of winning 90 games each season.
Hoyer seems to have taken that challenge to heart. The Cubs have had an offseason that has put them in the right direction with the additions of Kyle Tucker and Ryan Pressly, elevating their bench, and adding pitching depth. To that effect, Baseball Prospectus' latest PECOTA standings for the 2025 season have the Cubs as a 90-win team.
This season’s PECOTA projections are out. They have the Cubs winning 90 games. 👀https://t.co/MNvtMgXQie pic.twitter.com/XN5kDTITFP
— CHGO Cubs (@CHGO_Cubs) February 3, 2025
Not only do the projections have the Cubs as a 90-win team but they have the North Siders as the third-best team in baseball behind the Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves.
The latest Cubs' projections give a false sense of hope.
If you squint at the Cubs' roster, you can see the foundation for a 90-win team but, ironically, it's where the team is on the margins that may prove to be the reason why they aren't. The Cubs, short of a late offseason addition, are hinging their backend rotation hopes on Matthew Boyd, Colin Rea, and Javier Assad. That's not an assuring feeling, considering Assad had some red flags in his performance toward the end of the 2024 season, and Boyd has struggled to stay healthy over the course of his career.
Not to mention, while the Cubs' bench should be improved, they seem to be placing unfounded faith in Gage Workman and Vidal Bruján.
Of course, the Cubs can make their path toward meeting these projections easier if they add Alex Bregman and David Robertson. Neither move would stabilize the backend of the starting rotation but would raise the floor of expectation for the starting lineup and bullpen.