Kyle Tucker’s slump changes nothing for Cubs’ already slim chances

While Kyle Tucker's slump has largely been discussed through the lens of the Chicago Cubs' 2025 season, and rightfully so, the connection to his contract status was inevitable. Tucker is a free agent after the season, and when he was going right this season, the expectation was that his contract could reach as high as $600MM. If anything, Tucker's slump has confirmed the number won't be that high, but it's still going to be well beyond the Cubs' comfort zone.

For his latest work in The Athletic, former Major League Baseball general manager Jim Bowden ranks the top free agents ahead of the offseason, and Tucker is at the top of the list. Along those lines, Bowden still believes Tucker will get paid.

"Tucker is expected to be the highest-paid free agent in this class. Most analysts believe he will get somewhere between $500 million and $650 million based on the recent contracts of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. with the Blue Jays ($500 million) and Juan Soto with the Mets ($765 million). Tucker can impact a game in so many ways with his five tools: hitting, power, defense, arm strength, and speed."

Cubs’ chances of re-signing Kyle Tucker barely alive despite slump

Two things can be true: Tucker has played, over the last two months, like a player not worthy of that type of contract, but anyone who uses a two-month sample size as the reason why Tucker won't get a lucrative contract simply doesn't understand the logic of Major League Baseball front offices. What Tucker's slump impacts is the Cubs' chances of a lengthy postseason run, but it likely will have little impact on his bidding this offseason.

One outcome that feels inevitable is that we reach the end of the season, or the Cubs' postseason run, and it's revealed that Tucker played through a more significant thumb or knee injury. Playing through an injury is really the only way to explain how drastic the fall-off has been for Tucker's swing metrics and power.

Regardless, it remains unlikely that the Cubs will be the team to sign Tucker this offseason--unless the slump does have an unforeseen impact on his market.

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