Kyle Tucker has been as good as advertised, and the Cubs really should extend him

When Vladimir Guerrero Jr. put pen to paper on his $500 million extension, Kyle Tucker became the unquestioned best free agent in the 2025 class.

If that sounds like an obscene total for a player who has only had two truly great seasons, that's because it is. That $500 million figure is the third-largest sum ever given to a baseball player, behind just $700-million men Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto. However, given the massive amount of deferred money in Ohtani's deal, Guerrero's contract is the second-biggest in terms of present value.

That half-billion mark could end up being the starting point for Tucker in negotiations, mostly because he's just a better player than Guerrero Jr., at least consistently. And given the kind of year he's having in his first go-round in Chicago, he might just be worth it, even for a franchise that has yet to crack the $200 million barrier.

Kyle Tucker will demand, and be worth, a very expensive contract in free agency

Now, Guerrero isn't exactly the perfect touchstone for Tucker extension talks. Guerrero is more than two years Tucker's junior, and he also plays first base compared to right field. Likewise, the Blue Jays star has had higher highs than Tucker, who has earned his reputation as a consistently great player year over year. The ceiling on Tucker is lower—the variance is less—but the floor is much higher.

His first few months with the Cubs has only further proven that fact. In March/April, he posted a 158 wRC+ and .935 OPS. In May, he was at a 146 wRC+ and .882 OPS, and June has been more of the same, with Tucker logging a 153 wRC+ and .896 OPS.

So, just for reference, Tucker's worst month of the season would still be the 18th-best hitter in baseball this year.

That's absurd, and given how beloved he's quickly become with fans and the clubhouse, letting Tucker walk feels like a simply untenable resolution at this point.

Sure, being 29 by the time his next deal starts hurts his value. His age will likely preclude him from getting the same length of contract Guerrero (14) signed, but Tucker's AAV should exceed the $35.7 million the Blue Jays star received.

Could the right fielder push for $450 million over, say, 12 years? Probably, especially if he's willing to take deferrals — and the Cubs are actually willing to use deferrals in a contract — that would push down the present value (and AAV, in luxury tax calculations).

All of this is to say: Tucker is going to be really expensive any way you slice it. But, he's also probably going to be worth it, at least for a good while into his next contract.

Will the Cubs pay to retain their best player? It's frustrating that such a question even has to be asked, but there should be no doubt the team will be better of if it does.