Jed Hoyer’s promises are getting tested in new Cubs free agency forecast

Pitching is the theme of the Chicago Cubs' offseason, with the main takeaway from the GM Meetings being a slight sense of optimism that the Cubs could lean toward the top of the free-agent market. While the Cubs almost certainly won't be involved in the bidding for Kyle Tucker, Kyle Schwarber, or Cody Bellinger, they haven't been ruled out for a top starting pitcher, such as Framber Valdez, Dylan Cease, Michael King, or Ranger Suarez.

It would seem that the dream scenario for the Cubs would be to add two names to their starting rotation. The Cubs have had a need for a top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher dating back to last offseason, and Shota Imanaga's potential departure likely will put them in the market for a starter at the backend of their rotation.

Of course, the Cubs will have a full season of Cade Horton in 2026 and a returning Justin Steele, but for different reasons, the team may want to take a cautious approach with both of them.

Bleacher Report's latest MLB free agency predictions feel like a best-case scenario for the Chicago Cubs.

The latest round of free agency predictions from Bleacher Report feels like a dream scenario for Jed Hoyer and Co. Not only does Tim Kelly have the Cubs signing Lucas Giolito to a two-year deal worth $43MM, he also has the Cubs landing Valdez on a four-year deal worth $115MM with a $25MM club option for 2030.

Giolito's projection feels accurate. On the surface, Giolito's 3.41 ERA in 26 starts with the Boston Red Sox should make him an appealing target for teams this offseason. The issue is that Giolito's underlying metrics are awful--5.01 xERA, 4.59 xFIP, and a 19.7% strikeout rate.

In other words, Giolito's potential arrival wouldn't be the clear answer the Cubs need for their rotation. Which, in theory, makes sense why Kelly would also have the Cubs adding Valdez on a contract structure that Hoyer likely wouldn't shy away from. That said, of all the top free-agent starters available, it feels like the Cubs would prefer Cease, Suarez, and Tatsuya Imai over the former Astros' ace.

It would also seem that if the Cubs shop for a middle-tier pitcher like Giolito, their big swing would come through the trade market. Considering the names who could be available, trading for the primary addition feels like the logical move for the Cubs, considering they have the prospects for such a deal, and the financial burden would likely be less than paying at the top of the free-agent market.