Jed Hoyer must avoid offseason move that screams classic Cubs mistake

Justin Verlander is one of the biggest "what-ifs" when talking about moves the Chicago Cubs weren't able to make from yesteryear. After trading for Jose Quintana ahead of the 2017 MLB trade deadline, the Cubs were not a trade match for the Detroit Tigers when they moved Verlander to the Houston Astros ahead of the waiver deadline in August. It's a regret that Hoyer hasn't been shy about, and one he could correct this offseason.

Verlander, now with the San Francisco Giants, recently told John Shea of the San Francisco Standard that he plans on pitching in 2026.

“At this point in my career, if something goes really wrong, I’m not going to rehab a surgery or anything,” Verlander said. “I always understand that it could be it, but I think physically, I’ve shown some good health this season. As I’ve been on the mound, things have started to get better and better. To me, that’s a good sign with all the work I put in after my nerve injury last year, which notoriously takes a long time. The ball’s rolling in the right direction, and I would like to continue pitching. You never know. It’s a fickle game too, but I think the stuff is still there.”

Cubs’ next disaster could start if Jed Hoyer makes this offseason call

Hoyer loves the back of the baseball card. even when current metrics suggest he should steer clear of a disastrous move. Look no further than his MLB trade deadline choice of trading for Michael Soroka, betting on what the Cubs could turn him into, instead of taking issue with the injury concerns that were glaring.

That logic almost certainly will point Hoyer in the direction of Verlander this offseason. Especially when you consider Verlander is likely to be in the market for a one-year deal.

It's a move that Hoyer must avoid at all costs. The Cubs will need a top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher this offseason, and Verlander, at this point in his career, is not that. In 20 starts with the Giants this season, Verlander has an ERA of 4.53 while striking out under 20 percent of the hitters he is facing. There's nothing about that profile that should appeal to the Cubs.

If there were a scenario where the Cubs traded for a top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher, and then signed Verlander to stabilize the backend of their rotation, that certainly would be a fine scenario to play out this offseason. However, Hoyer's front office doesn't deserve the benefit of the doubt in terms of mapping out their moves in that order.

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