It's becoming crystal clear who will be the first fall guy for Cubs' 2026 failures

There are no excuses left for the failure of the 2026 Chicago Cubs. While the rotation has been plagued by injuries, it's the offense that continues to lose them otherwise very winnable games against teams that, on paper, represent the soft part of their schedule. Wednesday night was the nadir, when Shota Imanaga put together a solid bounce-back outing, but still couldn't get the win as the bats were baffled by Michael Lorenzen, who came into the day with an ERA over eight in over 60 innings. All it took was one late mistake by Jacob Webb at the hitter-friendly Coors Field to lose their tenth consecutive series.

You're probably sick of hearing this (I know I am), but since their second ten-game winning streak ended on May 9, the Cubs are hitting like the third-worst team in baseball, with a .210/.301/.332 slash line and 83 wRC+. With runners in scoring position, it's even more grim — .171/.282/.278/64 wRC+, ahead of only the Detroit Tigers. It's been such a systematic, unending failure that it feels like there will eventually need to be a shake-up.

Cubs fans are understandably furious with both Jed Hoyer and Craig Counsell, but neither is likely to lose their jobs yet. Hoyer just got extended last year, and Counsell is in the middle of a hefty five-year, $40 million contract. Moreover, there simply isn't a ton the latter can control when the players getting paid the big bucks, like Alex Bregman and Dansby Swanson, simply aren't living up to their contracts. In these situations, the most obvious candidate to go would be the hitting coach, aka Dustin Kelly.

Now, I want to preface this by saying I don't think you can point to Kelly for all of the Cubs' woes. Formerly the team's minor league hitting coordinator, he's one of the few holdovers from David Ross's coaching staff, and for good reason. He was already quite familiar with a few of the young prospects coming up at the time, like Pete Crow-Armstrong and Miguel Amaya, and helped them adjust to the big leagues. There are real indications that he's been a beneficial presence for a few of the team's most important players.

It's not as if a firing is a surefire way to get changes, either. At 27-39, the Red Sox sure don't seem any better after having canned Alex Cora, for instance. Yet, Kelly is in his fourth season in the position now, and so far, in the Cubs' most competitive seasons, they've almost always had at least one extended period where everyone goes cold. Last year, it was late July into August that slowed the team down. In 2024, May was the killer as they slashed .217/.299/.348 and went 10-18, while 2023 was more of the same.

The Cubs are running out of ways to provide a jolt

That probably says more about roster construction around streaky players, but in the midst of their deepest slump yet, moving on from Kelly, or, at the very least, assistant hitting coach John Mallee, might be the right lever to pull. The Cubs have been doing everything in their power to wake their slumbering team up, from bringing up hot hands in Pedro Ramirez and Kevin Alcantara to shuffling the lineup and benching regulars like Swanson and Ian Happ. It's been mixed results on an individual level, but they still aren't finding collective success.

Before the season, PECOTA's standings projected the Cubs for a bit over 90 wins to handily take the NL Central. Now, it's dropped their outlook to a mediocre 85.4 wins with a paltry chance of finally returning to the top of the division. Their playoff odds, per FanGraphs, are down to just 38.8%, with a likelihood of around 82 to 83 wins. Every season is precious, especially those where there are real hopes of contention. At some point, there has to be a more aggressive acknowledgement of what this slump has done in a year of sky-high expectations.

Fortunately (or unfortunately), more than half the season remains. This group has the talent to right the ship at least somewhat. After all, they had two 20-game winning streaks and now have a red-hot Pete Crow-Armstrong and Michael Busch. Thursday's commanding win over the Rockies was at least a sign of better things, including a home run from Bregman. The damage has been done, though, and each loss only increases the chances we'll be asking hard questions and seeing real consequences by the end of the season.

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