Grading the Chicago Cubs' last 5 first-round draft picks

When Chicago Cubs fans think of recent first-round picks, they no doubt get hung up on last year's selection, Cam Smith, who was selected with the 14th overall pick out of Florida State and got off to a roaring start in his professional career, slashing .313/.396/.609 across Class-A, High-A and Double-A.

This winter, he was an integral piece in the Kyle Tucker trade with the Houston Astros, and, after a slow start, the rookie infielder has rounded into form at the big-league level, entering Wednesday with a 121 OPS+ and 2.3 bWAR. But he's not the only Cubs' first-rounder from recent years contributing at the big-league level this year.

Let's take a look at the last 5 Cubs' first-round draft picks, dating back to the 2021 MLB Draft, and grade them based on what they've done to this point.

Grading the Chicago Cubs' last 5 first-round MLB Draft picks

2020: Ed Howard

The Ed Howard pick, even at the time, raised some eyebrows. Selected 16th overall out of Mount Carmel HS, the 19-year-old infielder was highly regarded after joining the organization, but things quickly went awry for him.

Because of the COVID-19 pandemic, he didn't make his professional debut until 2021, slashing .225/.277/.315 in 80 games with Myrtle Beach, missing a month or so with a hamstring issue. The very next year, he appeared in just 23 games with High-A South Bend before going down with a horrific season-ending hip injury.

Since returning from that injury, Howard just hasn't performed - period. A 36 wRC+ with South Bend in 2023 was followed by a 73 wRC+ with the Cubs' High-A affiliate in 2024. This year with Double-A Knoxville has been a total dumpster fire, with Howard striking out 45.2 percent of the time, slashing just .143/.268/.171.

Grade: F

2021: Jordan Wicks

Drafted out of Kansas State, Jordan Wicks was widely viewed as a polished, near-ready pitching product when the Cubs took him with the #21 pick in the 2021 MLB Draft.

Wicks quickly ascended through the system, making his big-league debut a little over two years later. He made seven starts down the stretch for Chicago, working to a 4.70 FIP and 1.269 WHIP. In 2024, he took a step backward, making 10 starts and one relief appearance with a 5.32 FIP and 10.8 H/9 early in the season. Suffice to say, it wasn't the year the Cubs or Wicks hoped for, with a lingering oblique injury costing him much of the campaign.

This year, Wicks has seen limited action with Chicago, but looked very sharp in his recent return from Iowa. The hope is that he can help shore up a short-handed rotation. This feels like a very important summer in the left-hander's development.

Grade: C-

2022: Cade Horton

Cade Horton's draft stock skyrocketed as the right-hander turned it on for the University of Oklahoma during the team's College World Series run, and the Cubs grabbed him with the #7 overall pick

He made his professional debut the following year, splitting the 2023 season between A, High-A and Double-A, and working to a 2.65 ERA and nearly 12 strikeouts per nine across 21 starts. The industry took note and he entered 2024 as a consensus top-30 prospect in baseball. Unfortunately, injuries cut his season short - and there were real questions as to how he'd bounce back coming into 2025.

Horton answered those questions dramatically, posting a 1.24 ERA at Triple-A to open the year before getting called up for his MLB debut. He's made 10 starts for the Cubs, allowing three or fewer runs in seven of them. He has learned to be more efficient with his pitches and has developed a plus change-up on the fly. His last time out, he tossed seven shutout frames against Cleveland - his best start as a big-leaguer.

Grade: B

2023: Matt Shaw

Matt Shaw came out of the University of Maryland as a highly-regarded prospect known for his bat-to-ball skills. That skillset was immediately evident as he worked his way through the system, with the young infielder slashing .301/.388/.527across more than 802 plate appearances at all levels.

He cracked the Opening Day roster this spring, but immediately struggled and was quickly dropped back to Iowa to iron out some swing mechanics. Since returning, he hasn't been much better - and the Cubs are actively searching for third base reinforcements ahead of the trade deadline.

On the year, Shaw is slashing just .203/.283/.287 - and in terms of OPS+ has been nearly 50 percent worse than a league average player at the dish. Nobody should write off a prospect after just 60 career MLB games. The results have been there for him throughout college and at every stop along the way in the minors. The last (and most important) box to check is producing at the big-league level.

Grade: B-

2024: Cam Smith

If the Chicago Cubs don't extend Kyle Tucker this offseason and keep him on the North Side for years to come, you can bet the fanbase will spend the rest of Cam Smith's career wondering 'what might have been.'

Smith made the Houston Astros' Opening Day roster and got off to a slow start. But with reps came results, and he's been a mainstay in their lineup all summer long, really hitting his stride in June with an .849 OPS. Less than a year removed from being drafted out of FSU, the 22-year-old is making his presence felt at the big-league level.

This was a clear home run pick from Hoyer and the Cubs. Regardless of whether he's still in the organization or not, Smith has shown he's the real deal in his first taste of Major League action.

Grade: A