Grading the Chicago Cubs' last 5 first-round draft picks

When Chicago Cubs fans think of recent first-round picks, some names that come to mind probably include Matt Shaw, Cam Smith and Cade Horton. Shaw, of course, is still with the organization, as is Horton (although he's done for the year due to elbow surgery) - and Smith headlined the trade that brought Kyle Tucker to Wrigley ahead of the 2025 campaign.

It's all eyes on Jed Hoyer and the Cubs, who have the #23 overall selection in the 2026 MLB Draft, to see whether they'll deviate off their recent run of drafting position players in the first round or if they'll ferociously attack the pitching side of the equation.

Let's take a look at the last 5 Cubs' first-round draft picks, dating back to the 2022 MLB Draft, and grade them based on what they've done to this point.

Grading the Chicago Cubs' last 5 first-round MLB Draft picks

2021: Jordan Wicks

Drafted out of Kansas State, Jordan Wicks was widely viewed as a polished, near-ready pitching product when the Cubs took him with the #21 pick in the 2021 MLB Draft.

Wicks quickly ascended through the system, making his big-league debut a little over two years later. He made seven starts down the stretch for Chicago, working to a 4.70 FIP and 1.269 WHIP. In 2024, he took a step backward, making 10 starts and one relief appearance with a 5.32 FIP and 10.8 H/9 early in the season. Suffice to say, it wasn't the year the Cubs or Wicks hoped for, with a lingering oblique injury costing him much of the campaign.

This year, Wicks has seen limited action with Chicago, but still hasn't made that leap that we've been waiting for. To put it bluntly, he hasn't done enough to prove he can consistently shore up a short-handed Cubs pitching staff over the long-term. The clock may be ticking on the southpaw.

Grade: C-

2022: Cade Horton

Cade Horton's draft stock skyrocketed as the right-hander turned it on for the University of Oklahoma during the team's College World Series run, and the Cubs grabbed him with the #7 overall pick

He made his professional debut the following year, splitting the 2023 season between A, High-A and Double-A, and working to a 2.65 ERA and nearly 12 strikeouts per nine across 21 starts. The industry took note and he entered 2024 as a consensus top-30 prospect in baseball. Unfortunately, injuries cut his season short - and there were real questions as to how he'd bounce back coming into 2025.

Horton bounced back in resounding fashion, emerging as the Cubs' ace and finishing second in National League Rookie of the Year voting with a 2.67 ERA over 22 starts - but saw his 2026 campaign end before it even got going. He underwent UCL revision repair, a flexor tendon repair and an internal brace procedure on his right elbow - and now, we must wait and see what the future holds for the 24-year-old hurler.

Grade: B

2023: Matt Shaw

Matt Shaw came out of the University of Maryland as a highly-regarded prospect known for his bat-to-ball skills. That skillset was immediately evident as he worked his way through the system, with the young infielder slashing .301/.388/.527across more than 802 plate appearances at all levels.

He cracked the Opening Day roster last spring, but immediately struggled and was quickly dropped back to Iowa to iron out some swing mechanics. He picked up some steam in the summer months, but was a non-factor during Chicago's playoff run and the Cubs went out and signed Alex Bregman prior to the 2026 season rather than hand Shaw the reins at third.

This time around, serving in a super-utility role, Shaw is slashing .246/.322/.415 as the first half draws to a close, good for a 106 OPS+. With Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki both set to depart via free agency, we could see him in a corner spot next spring - or he may be an important trade chip as Hoyer looks to anchor an injury-riddled rotation.

Grade: B-

2024: Cam Smith

Given Kyle Tucker's run on the North Side was a one-and-done, Cubs fans will probably always cast a wary eye to check on what Cam Smith is doing, asking themselves 'what might have been'.

He made the Houston Astros' Opening Day roster in 2025 and turned in a decent season as a 22-year-old rookie, finishing at 2.0 bWAR and slashing .236/.312/.358. Given how little pro experience he had, it was especially impressive to see him hold his own over the course of a full campaign. Less than a year removed from being drafted out of FSU, the 22-year-old made his presence felt at the big-league level.

This year, Smith has almost identically matched that offensive output. There's definite room for improvement at the plate, but given how young he is, it doesn't feel like anyone is all that worried about his long-term projection.

2025: Ethan Conrad

The Cubs rolled the dice on Ethan Conrad in the 2025 MLB Draft, taking the injured Wake Forest outfielder in the first round. Patience has been the name of the game - he just played in his first professional games in recent weeks.

Early returns in the Arizona Complex League have been promising, though. Conrad is slashing .412/.500/.647 in his first 21 trips to the plate and, having just turned 22 in July, there's plenty of hope that he'll quickly climb the ranks through the organization and establish himself as a premier offensive prospect who can help the Cubs sooner rather than later.

Grade: C (for now)

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