Familiar Red Sox arm could be top Tarik Skubal alternative if Cubs are buyers

The Chicago Cubs have been struggling for over a month now, and when the team's record is flirting dangerously with .500 at this point it's hard to have much confidence in the direction of the team for the remainder of the season. Continued struggles would surely make buying at this summer's trade deadline more or less untenable, but Jed Hoyer and his front office are nonetheless tasked with planning for all possibilities, including those where the Cubs turn their season around.

That means the possibility of buying at this summer's trade deadline must be considered seriously. With Cade Horton and Justin Steele injured and the rest of the rotation struggling badly, a starting pitcher or two is by far this team's biggest need. Tigers lefty Tarik Skubal is the biggest name available, but recent comments from Hoyer are a reminder that he prefers to go for smaller deals. One pitcher who would make an impact but not break the bank like Skubal is Boston's Sonny Gray.

Gray, 36, was traded by the Cardinals to the Red Sox over the offseason as they blew up their previous roster to usher in a new era under new front office boss Chaim Bloom. That brought to an end a two-year stint with St. Louis, which had been preceded by a stay in the Central with the Reds earlier in his career. The righty is now getting older, but he's long been effective. Between 2019 and 2025, he delivered more than 1000 innings of 3.51 ERA baseball to the Cardinals, Reds, and Twins.

Since joining the Red Sox, he looks to be just as good. Gray has 11 starts with Boston under his belt so far, but so far has posted a 3.20 ERA with a 7-1 record across 56 1/3 innings of work. Those numbers will certainly play, even if the veteran's 18.9% strikeout rate this year is lower than it's been since 2016. He's balanced that out by generating more soft contact this year, a tactic that should play quite well in front of the Cubs' elite defensive unit.

Even when not at his best, Gray would be a big upgrade for the Cubs

Gray himself would tell you that his stuff hasn't always been at its best this year. He said as much to Sean McAdam of MassLive in a conversation shortly after a three-run, 6 1/3 inning outing against the Yankees in his most recent outing. He's allowed more than those three earned runs just once so far this year, and just three strikeouts was a big step back for someone who struck out 26.2% of his opponents in May.

Of course, Gray's so-called struggles during his last start would hardly register as struggles for Cubs fans. Just four teams (the Rockies, Mets, Padres, and Nationals) have managed to cobble together fewer quality starts than the Cubs' nine since the start of May. Gray accounts for four of Boston's eleven in that time frame by himself.

As far as health goes, Gray has had just one injury scare this year: a brief trip to the injured list back in April due to a hamstring issue, which was discussed at the time by MLB.com's Ian Browne. He's qualified for the ERA title in each of the last three seasons, something that can't be said for any of the Cubs' other starters. Put all of that together and it's easy to see why Gray would be an attractive target for the Cubs.

Better yet, his massive $30 million salary for this final year of his contract should make him relatively affordable at the deadline. Starting pitching is always a premium asset over the summer, but he would surely cost less than the Freddy Peralta trade packages that have been bandied about recently. If the Cubs really want to bring in a former division rival to round out their struggling rotation, Gray seems likely to be a strong option who wouldn't require ripping apart the farm system.

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