Evaluating 3 fringe teams in the Cody Bellinger trade sweepstakes

Do we NEED more Cody Bellinger content? Yes. It's a slow baseball news week, plus you could use some conversation topics to bring up during Thanksgiving with your half-drunk uncle who still claims Kevin Orie could be the Cubs' next great third baseman.

It's been widely reported that teams that miss out on Juan Soto will be potential suitors for Cody Bellinger, including the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers and Blue Jays.

Let's bypass those teams and pull together some more creative deals for the versatile former MVP. Jed Hoyer doesn't need to move Bellinger, so these packages are going to have to be pretty significant to make something happen. The gaping need in the Cubs 'entire organization is starting pitching with either elite velocity or a swing-and-miss repertoire, so we'll focus on organizations' big league-ready pitching.

1. Dave Dombrowski and the Phillies keep swinging

I love Dave Dombrowski. Almost as much as he loves spending MLB owners' money. He lives for deal-making and isn't afraid to commit serious dollars and extra years to reel in elite players, particularly when his teams are in win-now mode.

The Phillies are definitively in win-now mode after falling short the last couple of seasons and they have a glaring gap in center field. Johann Rojas is penciled in as the starter for 2025, but his 68 wRC+ in '24 was a glaring black hole in the postseason admist a lineup otherwise filled with established hitters. Inserting Bellinger into the Phil's lineup admittedly would make them extremely lefty-heavy, but there are murmurs they are open to trading Bryson Stott. Replacing Stott with a righty option would help the Bellinger fit.

However, Dombrowski will have a hard time pulling from a top-heavy farm system to pull a package together to entice the Cubs. Andrew Painter would 100 percent get the job done but, even coming off Tommy John surgery, seems like too much of a can't-miss prospect for even Dombrowski to flip for a non-elite player.

Mick Abel is another highly touted pitching prospect in the upper levels of the Philadelphia minor league system, but his hype has so far outweighed actual production on the bump. His strikeout rates are outstanding, but he got hammered to a tune of a 6.46 ERA at Triple-A in 2024. It wasn't just a few bad, outlier outings driving up those numbers either. He's not someone the Cubs would want a package built around.

The rest of the Phils system is position player-heavy, and there's not a lot of potential for Dombrowski to subtract from the Major League club with their win-now aspirations.

Chances of a Phillies trade: 15%

The Phillies would be motivated, but the pieces just don't line up unless they get convinced Bellinger is the missing piece and are willing to move Painter.

2. Cody Bellinger packs his bags for Seattle

The Mariners check a ton of boxes for a potential trade partner: Stable of young pitching? Check. Need for power and pure hit tools? Check. Ready to win? Check. Presence of a trade-obsessed GM potentially on the hot seat? Check.

Jerry DiPoto is desperately trying to dethrone the Astros in the AL West. They came close in 2024, but were held back by an abysmal team batting average of .224. It looks like they are primed to get better in 2024 with a full season of Randy Arozerena and Victor Robles, but a Bellinger addition would go a long way toward lengthening their lineup while also eliminating the need to give Mitch Haniger and Mitch Garver at-bats at DH and 1B.

Their rotation has a quartet of young, controllable starters. I assume former first-rounder and established star Logan Gilbert is untouchable. That leaves Bryce Miller, George Kirby and Bryan Woo, plus Emerson Hancock who projects outside their rotation right now. Kirby's velocity would definitely make him an attractive addition to a Cubs rotation that is sorely lacking it, but any of him, Miller or Woo would probably be enough for the Cubs to send Bellinger and some offset dollars alongside him to the Pacific Northwest. The Cubs could also get creative and take on Garver's $12.5 million salary for 2025 as well, which would give them an attractive second catcher option and provide salary relief to the M's, who have All-Star Cal Raleigh locked in behind the dish.

However, DiPoto has come out and said that he has no plans to deal from the rotation that started 161 games between the above quartet and Luis Castillo last year. Seattle's lineup had a lot fewer holes in it in the last couple months of the year than in the first half of 2024. Luke Raley could go into the spring as their full-time first base option and it's probably that the Mariners would prefer cheaper options that wouldn't require subtraction from their big league roster.

Chance of a Mariners trade: 25%

Bellinger would be huge for the Mariners lineup, but even a trade maniac like DiPoto would be hesitant to deal proven young arms. The Cubs could eat some salary to make it more enticing, but it's still unlikely to get the job done for a stud like Miller or Kirby.

Houston, we've finally found our match

The Astros have a ton of starting pitching options, even with Justin Verlander and Yusei Kikuchi departing. Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco, Lance McCullers, the intriguing Spencer Arrighetti and Luis Garcia all should be healthy heading into camp plus Christian Javier and Jose Uriquidy could return mid-season. They also have 2023's breakout starter J.P. France returning sometime during the season as well.

Houston is somewhat handcuffed by Scott Boras' slow-burn approach with marquee free agents like Alex Bregman. The Astros seemed to be the front-runners to bring him back, but Boras has started to drop some absurd price tag ideas that would most likely preclude Houston from re-signing Bregman knowing a younger and more valuable Kyle Tucker is just a year away from free agency.

If Bregman does end up departing for a massive deal elsewhere, the Astros will have both a need for Bellinger (first base has been a well-documented disaster for them) and some salary room to play with.

Let's make it fun and focus on McCullers as a potential central piece heading back to the Cubs. He has a $17 million cap hit the next two years plus a ton of health questions since he hasn't pitched in a big league game since 2022 World Series (wild to think it's been that long). When healthy, McCullers is a very high-end pitcher. Featuring a wipeout sinker/slider combination, he generates ground balls at a historic rate - a metric the Cubs front office adores. Chicago absorbing his salary would allow the Astros to easily add Bellinger and other pieces after a potential breakup with Bregman.

I think a 1:1 swap of Bellinger for a reasonably healthy McCullers, plus the ~$10 million savings would be enough for the Cubs to make this deal. However, Hoyer could get greedy and try to get the Astros to include former top prospect Forrest Whitley as well. Whitley finally made his long-awaited big league debut (albeit in the bullpen) in 2024 and could present a good project for the Cubs pitching lab.

Chance of an Astros trade: 40%

I actually talked myself into this one as I was writing it. The Astros starting pitching depth is incredible and they need to compete in 2025. Even if they do bring back Bregman, Bellinger probably represents the best lefty-hitting first-base option on the market. The Astros also have question marks in the various outfield positions the former MVP could play, so the fit is strong. The Cubs would have to feel good about McCullers' health, which has been unreported on in the past 4-5 months.