Evaluating 3 fringe teams in the Cody Bellinger trade sweepstakes

Houston, we've finally found our match

The Astros have a ton of starting pitching options, even with Justin Verlander and Yusei Kikuchi departing. Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco, Lance McCullers, the intriguing Spencer Arrighetti and Luis Garcia all should be healthy heading into camp plus Christian Javier and Jose Uriquidy could return mid-season. They also have 2023's breakout starter J.P. France returning sometime during the season as well.

Houston is somewhat handcuffed by Scott Boras' slow-burn approach with marquee free agents like Alex Bregman. The Astros seemed to be the front-runners to bring him back, but Boras has started to drop some absurd price tag ideas that would most likely preclude Houston from re-signing Bregman knowing a younger and more valuable Kyle Tucker is just a year away from free agency.

If Bregman does end up departing for a massive deal elsewhere, the Astros will have both a need for Bellinger (first base has been a well-documented disaster for them) and some salary room to play with.

Let's make it fun and focus on McCullers as a potential central piece heading back to the Cubs. He has a $17 million cap hit the next two years plus a ton of health questions since he hasn't pitched in a big league game since 2022 World Series (wild to think it's been that long). When healthy, McCullers is a very high-end pitcher. Featuring a wipeout sinker/slider combination, he generates ground balls at a historic rate - a metric the Cubs front office adores. Chicago absorbing his salary would allow the Astros to easily add Bellinger and other pieces after a potential breakup with Bregman.

I think a 1:1 swap of Bellinger for a reasonably healthy McCullers, plus the ~$10 million savings would be enough for the Cubs to make this deal. However, Hoyer could get greedy and try to get the Astros to include former top prospect Forrest Whitley as well. Whitley finally made his long-awaited big league debut (albeit in the bullpen) in 2024 and could present a good project for the Cubs pitching lab.

Chance of an Astros trade: 40%

I actually talked myself into this one as I was writing it. The Astros starting pitching depth is incredible and they need to compete in 2025. Even if they do bring back Bregman, Bellinger probably represents the best lefty-hitting first-base option on the market. The Astros also have question marks in the various outfield positions the former MVP could play, so the fit is strong. The Cubs would have to feel good about McCullers' health, which has been unreported on in the past 4-5 months.