Don't hold your breath on Jed Hoyer surprising us with this huge roster upgrade

With their one year fling with Kyle Tucker in the past, the Chicago Cubs are now tasked with replacing a 4.6 bWAR player who ranked tenth in baseball with a 143 OPS+. A new MLB.com piece examines burning questions facing each of the 30 teams heading into next week's Winter Meetings - and it feels like we all know the answer to the Cubs' query.

"Will they surprise people and add an impact bat?"

No, I'd wager they won't. Jed Hoyer remains unwilling to get uncomfortable when talks get down to the eleventh hour (as evidenced by the team bowing out of the Dylan Cease sweepstakes at the finish line), so it's hard to imagine the Cubs will be the team that blows the competition out of the water to sign someone like Alex Bregman.

Here's what the piece notes when it comes to Chicago and the three-time All-Star and two-time World Series champion.

It’s possible the team goes with the pieces already in place, especially with pitching being the biggest need. That said, the Cubs’ front office has surprised before, and it was just last spring that they stayed in on Alex Bregman until the very end. Could president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer have something else up his sleeve this year? We’ll see.

Alex Bregman looking to cash in after a strong year with the Red Sox

Bregman signed with the Boston Red Sox last winter, inking a three-year, $120 million deal back in February. The Cubs were on the periphery of the sweepstakes, but fell well shy of offering the most, either in dollars or years. After putting up an .821 OPS in 114 games this year, Bregman opted out, re-positioning himself as one of the premier offensive free agents - now free of draft pick compensation.

As was the case this time last year, Bregman is a pretty perfect fit for the Cubs, a team that, as I said, needs to replace Tucker and could partially solve one of its biggest problems in signing him. By slotting the former Gold Glover in at third, Matt Shaw could push into a super-utility role, immediately boosting a bench that was downright abysmal in 2025.

But given Hoyer hasn't yet added his ace or beefed up the bullpen outside of signing veteran Phil Maton, it seems like a foregone conclusion the dollars that could go to Bregman are spoken for in one way or another. A Bregman signing would be a dramatic departure from this front office's modus operandi - and until we see Tom Ricketts open the checkbook and Hoyer get aggressive, I'm not buying on this speculation.